Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 242324
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
624 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.AVIATION...
Chance of showers in the overnight hours (03Z-12Z), will bring
MVFR conditions and maybe IFR conditions at times due to low cigs
with periods of low vis. However TAFs are only written to MVFR
conditions because confidence is low for IFR conditions to be
persistent. KAMA and KGUY will start out in VFR for the first few
hours before becoming MVFR. All sites should be back to VFR
conditions by 14Z. Winds will be northerly 15-20 kts gusting 25-30
kts at times, for the entire 00Z TAF period.

Hoffeditz/Cockrell


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...
After stalling out for most of the day, a cold front will work its
way south across the TX Panhandle through the remainder of the
afternoon hours. Winds will shift to northerly with strong gusts
close to 35 kts at times, as currently being observed across parts
of the northern Texas Panhandle and parts of the Oklahoma
Panhandle. This should linger into the evening hours before
subsiding into the overnight hours. A wind headline maybe needed
if winds persist longer than hi-res models suggest. In-conjunction
with the winds, low clouds are also moving in behind the front
which should limit temps from climbing any further. A second
component to the near term forecast period will be the
precipitation moving through most of the region. The early onset
of precipitation that could develop late this afternoon should
remain mostly south of the TX Panhandle in areas of clearing with
some SBCAPE south of the region with an isolated chance developing
as far north as the far southern TX Panhandle. Otherwise, the
main chances of precipitation will be associated with an upper
level trough moving south out of the northern High Plains. This
in-conjunction with 300-310K upglide with a mean southerly winds
will provide some decent isentropic lift in the latest 24/12Z hi-
res data. Cannot completely rule out some thunder as a result,
especially across eastern areas. As the main axis of the upper
level trough is expected to move southeast into central Oklahoma,
the best chances will be across the central and eastern Panhandles
this evening into the first half of Wednesday with the best
chances of measurable precipitation shifting to the eastern
Panhandles going into the day on Thursday. High temperatures
tomorrow should recover slightly into the lower 60s as cloud cover
should decrease from north to south going into the second half of
Thursday.

Going forward through the remainder of the forecast period, we
will be entering a more sinusoidal synoptic weather pattern.
Throughout the remainder of the week, latest 12Z guidance
illustrate northwesterly mid level flow bringing another
disturbance bringing additional chances of precipitation possible,
especially in the eastern Panhandle with gusty winds associated
with a surface trough across western areas by Friday. A mid level
ridge will eventually move through toward the weekend bringing a
steady rise of temperatures throughout the week maxing out temps
by the weekend with temps rising from below average to slightly
above average by the weekend.

Going into next week, an active southern stream weather pattern
may be in the horizon. South to southeasterly winds look to be
established bringing in some southerly moisture with additional
chances of precipitation toward the end of the forecast period.
Details as we get closer will be updated accordingly. High temps
will remain near to above average toward the end of the forecast
period.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

36/3/29



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