Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 221747
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
147 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will reside over the region into early next week,
bringing mostly sunny skies and moderating temperatures. The
next chance for rain showers will arrive late Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1130 AM update...
Current forecast in good shape just raised maximum temperatures
a couple of degrees. Highs will range from the upper 50s to
lower 60s under sunny skies.

previous disc...
A few locations did have a quick tank of temperatures just
before sunrise. These were incorporated into the overall
temperature trends today.

High pressure will be present over the region resulting in another
sunny day! A warming trend will also continue as well. Highs look to
get well into 50`s across the region today with a few spots hitting
60 based on modeled 925 mb temperatures near 6C. Model soundings do
show the potential for winds this afternoon to briefly pick up to
around 10 mph from the northwest.

Conditions tonight look prime for radiational cooling with
clear skies and light winds. Quite a day/night temperature
contrast looks to continue with lows falling into the upper 20`s
and lower 30`s. Opted to go a couple of degrees below the model
consensus given radiational cooling expected.

As the high pressure moves east of the region on Monday,
southerly flow will increase. This will result in the warming
trend continuing into Monday with temperatures getting into the
60`s across the region. Enough influence from the high pressure
system will give us one more mostly sunny day. Opted to go on
the warmer end of what the models are indicating given the
abundant sunshine and rising temperatures at 925mb.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
400 am Update...
High pressure at the surface and upper level ridging will
continue to dominate the region with dry/quiet weather at least
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Cool Tuesday morning
temperatures in the 30s are possible under mostly clear skies
and light winds.

The warm/dry pattern will shift back to a slightly cooler and
more active pattern beginning on Tuesday with initially cloud
cover increasing through the day, and eventually rain moving in
from the s/sw later in the day. Increased cloud cover will cap
high temperatures to the upper 50s and lower 60s Tue afternoon.
There are still some timing differences in the onset of rain
Tuesday, but the general consensus is that the rain will push in
from the sw some time during the mid to late afternoon. A wedge
of very dry air will remain in place early Tuesday...and will
likely slow down the onset time of precip as the atmosphere
takes some time to saturate. A cutoff upper low over the Ohio
Valley will move into the mid-Atlantic region and phase with an
incoming short wave from the nw on Wednesday. Will likely see
widespread steady rain across the region Wed as this system
rounds the bottom of a large synoptic trough. Rainfall amts
should range from a quarter to half an inch.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be a few deg cooler with highs
only reaching into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 am update...
Cooler air will try to filter in on the back side of the slowly
departing system Wed night/Thur morning...but should still be
warm enough for all rain. The rain is expected to taper off
later in the day Thursday with dry weather expected through the
day Friday before the next round of rain Friday night and
Saturday. There doesn`t appear to be a consensus on the timing
of the waves tracking through the area within the large scale
pattern this weekend and into early next week...so kept with
chance pops into Sunday. Temperatures should remain on the cool
side this weekend with highs in the 50s and lows in the upper
30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through this TAF period with high
pressure over the region. Skies will be clear.

Northwest winds 7-10 knots becoming light and variable early
this evening. Southeast winds on Monday at 5-10 knots.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday morning...VFR. High confidence.

Tuesday afternoon...Restrictions possibly late day with rain
showers, primarily KAVP, KELM, KITH, KBGM.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Restrictions possible
in rain showers. Medium confidence.

Thursday through Friday...Primarily VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MWG/RRM
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...RRM


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