Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 191001
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
601 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
One area of low pressure will continue moving away through the
Maritimes today as another low develops south of New England. The
new low will track south of Nova Scotia tonight and on toward
Newfoundland on Friday. High pressure will begin to build in from
the west over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:01 am update: A weak shortwave is pushing across the eastern
zones this morning with a little bit of -ra/-sn, but this should
exit into NB within the next hour or so. Made some adjustments
to the PoPs to account for this small area of precipitation that
developed early this morning. The only other update was to
cancel the small craft advisory as the seas/swell have continued
to subside early this morning.

Previous discussion:
An upper trough across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence early this
morning will split into two low centers. One center pushes off
the Newfoundland coast as the second digs into the Saint
Lawrence River valley this afternoon. This low will move across
Maine tonight and into western New Brunswick by 12Z Fri. A sfc
trough north of the area will dissipate today. An area of low
pressure along the Delmarva coast early this morning will pass
east of Cape Cod this afternoon, and east of Halifax by around
midnight tonight.

Overall the system passing to our south and east looks fairly
weak with the bulk of the more significant QPF to pass south and
east of our CWA.  Rain will likely develop along the Downeast
coast this afternoon with a couple of showers to the north,
which will be more in association with the upper low. As the
sfc low pulls east tonight moisture will rotate around the low
and back into parts of northern and eastern Maine as the upper
low traverses the region. There will be enough lift and moisture
for some areas of rain and snow, but it looks rather
disorganized. The best chance will likely be from southeast
Aroostook County down across Washington County. As far as
precipitation type goes, would expect mainly rain in the early
evening that transitions to wet snow late evening and overnight.
the most likely area to pick up an inch or two of wet snow
would be from around Houlton south into central Washington
County, with an inch or less elsewhere. Most of the snow that
does fall will melt on most paved surfaces, although a little
slushy coating is possible on normally colder surfaces such as
bridges and overpasses. Overall, this looks to be a very minor
event.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure tracking through the southern Maritimes Friday morning
will produce some light, wet snow across the area Friday morning.
Snow will taper off to spotty snow and rain showers north and rain
showers Downeast Friday afternoon. Little or no additional snow
accumulation is expected on Friday. Upper level low pressure to our
northeast will keep skies mostly cloudy Friday night through
Saturday, although some breaks of sunshine are possible late
Saturday afternoon, especially Downeast, as drier air begins to
circulate in from the west. The sky should become partly cloudy
Saturday night as the upper low continue to move away and
surface high pressure from the Great Lakes begins to approach.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong ridge of high pressure will begin to build in on Sunday
bringing a mostly sunny and milder day. The upper level ridge will
build over the area Monday into Tuesday as surface high pressure
slowly slides to the south. A return flow of southerly air behind
the high will bring warmer air into the region early next week
under a sunny sky. Wednesday may begin warm and dry. A new
trough of low pressure will then approach bringing a chance of
rain Wednesday night into Thursday. This looks like a warm
system with significant rain possible along with fog.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions will lower to IFR late this afternoon or
early this evening at the Downeast terminals in -ra, with IFR
to MVFR expected tonight. At the northern terminals,
predominately MVFR today with conditions to lower to IFR in
-ra/-sn tonight. Brief periods of LIFR early this morning at
KFVE in fog.

SHORT TERM: IFR conditions are likely Friday morning, possibly
improving to MVFR in some sites, mainly downeast, Friday
afternoon. MVFR conditions are likely Friday night into Saturday
morning. Ceilings should then lift during the day Saturday
becoming VFR Saturday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected
Saturday night through early next week as high pressure builds
in.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The small craft advisory for hazardous seas was
cancelled with the early morning update. Seas are running around
5 ft, but it is mostly residual longer period swell. The swell
is expected to continue to slowly subside today, and the wind
and seas should remain below SCA levels into tonight.

SHORT TERM: A few gusts may be close to 25 kt over the offshore
waters early Friday morning. Some swell may approach 5 ft over
the offshore waters during the midday Friday. Otherwise, winds
and seas are expected to be below SCA Friday, through the
weekend, and into early next week as high pressure builds over.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The snow depth this morning at Caribou of 11" ranks as the 3rd
highest on record for April 19th. The highest observed snow
depth at 12Z on 4/19 is 17" in 1939.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...CB/Bloomer
Marine...CB/Bloomer
Climate...CB


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