Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 220136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
936 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

High pressure across the western Great Lakes and mid Mississippi
Valley will attempt to edge closer to northern OH and northwest
PA tonight and Thursday and be overhead Friday. Low pressure
will move from the Central Plains and across the Tennessee
Valley Saturday, but the high pressure to our north is expected
to hold firm.


High clouds will remain overnight although some thinning has
been noted as we lose the mid-layer near 10K feet. The thinning
should allow temperatures to continue to gradually fall
overnight and lows ranging from the lower 20s inland to mid 20s
along the lakeshore look reasonable.

Previous discussion...Quiet night tonight as the focus shifts
completely to the east coast. We retain a degree of troughiness
at the surface but the high across the western Great Lakes will
be slowly shifting eastward. We will lose the gusts this
evening, and winds will begin to diminish. We have lost most of
the lower deck of clouds and all that remain are mid/high
clouds. Expecting much of this to stick around. Some morning
clouds off the lake are possible too across NE OH/NW PA. It will
still be cold tonight and have lows in the lower 20s.

Dry again Thursday. Temperatures will struggle as we continue
the cold north-northwest flow. Other than a few lower 40s across
the Toledo area, most others will only reach the upper 30s.

Thursday night a compact upper low rotates southward across the
Great Lakes. While not expecting much from this, we could get a
few flurries/snow showers out of it for the extreme east
snowbelt toward Friday morning. Have added a 20 percent chance
to the forecast. Lows again in the 20s.


A strong short wave will depart on Friday. The ECMWF prints out
a closed low aloft just north of Erie PA at 12Z Friday. The
models print out very little/no QPF but will have to mention at
least a chance of snow showers across extreme NE OH and NW PA
Friday morning.

The west coast storm system will work its way across the Rockies by
Saturday morning and emerge on the southern plains as a Colorado
low. With the ridging in the northern branch and the blocking along
the east coast, the system should be deflected south. There will be
some impact though. We will see thickening high clouds. Some mid
clouds, virga, perhaps even a period of light rain or snow, may
brush the southern and western counties, south of the turnpike. Will
include a small pop in these areas.

Ridging aloft is progged to build east by Sunday with the
resulting surface high building back across the Great Lakes. We
may hang on to some high clouds early on Sunday but sunshine
should increase. Temperatures will moderate some, with the
exception of lake breezes, but remain below normal.


The long term will start off dry as an amplified ridge of high
pressure is over the region. This means temperatures will be
near normal on Monday and moving to slightly above normal by
Tuesday. Precipitation chances will begin to increase across far
western areas late Monday night into Tuesday morning as the
ridge of high pressure begins to slide off to the east and a
surface low begins to eject out of the Southern Plains.

Precipitation chances become more widespread Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the low begins to cut northeast through parts of the
Ohio Valley. There is still uncertainty on exactly where this low
will track and how fast it will eject out of the Plains, so will
keep chance PoPs in the grids for now.


.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Mid and high level clouds will remain overhead tonight. Lower
clouds may try to develop downwind of Lake Erie in the
2500-3500 foot range late tonight into Thursday morning and
included a window of broken clouds at the eastern terminals.
Whatever lower clouds do develop should scatter out quickly
during the afternoon as the surface ridge continues to expand
overhead. Northerly winds starting off near 10 knots will become
northwesterly on Thursday.

.Outlook...Some non-VFR possible across far NE Ohio and NW PA
Friday morning.


Winds on the lake will only slowly diminish and the small craft
advisory will have to be extended. The north northwest wind will
drop below the speed criteria tonight but the waves may stay
at/above 4 feet into Thursday. High pressure will build across
the lakes Friday with somewhat lighter winds although the
northwest flow may continue to bring choppy conditions on the
east half of the lake.

The pressure gradient will increase rather quickly on Saturday
between high pressure over eastern Canada and low pressure that
will track across the lower Ohio Valley. A small craft advisory
will likely be needed again Saturday into Sunday for northeast
winds, especially for the west half of the lake.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ144>149.


SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Mottice
MARINE...Kosarik is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.