Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 231801
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
101 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Update for 18Z aviation cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

Today...VFR. Just some mid/higher level clouds streaming across
the region from the west. Light east-northeast winds prevail. High
confidence.

Tonight...Mostly VFR. Expecting some patchy ground fog to develop
around KALI/KVCT after midnight. Not thinking dense fog but it
could go down to IFR levels. Light and variable winds. Medium to
high confidence.

Tuesday...VFR. High pressure moves in overhead with light winds
becoming more easterly throughout the day. Not much in the way of
clouds. High confidence.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

A broad upper ridge over the Desert Southwest into northwest
Mexico will become a little more amplified as it moves into the
southern Rockies into northern Mexico Tuesday. This will occur
as the upper low over western Tennessee slowly moves to the
east-northeast to be over eastern portions of Tennessee and
Kentucky by late afternoon Tuesday. Quiet weather will be in
store through the period for South Texas. A weak surface ridge
axis will be from north central Texas into the northwest Gulf
of Mexico through tonight. High pressure area will move into
the northwest Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday with a weak to moderate
southeast wind developing as a low pressure area forms over
southwest Texas. Highs will be near normal today and then slightly
warmer on Tuesday as the upper ridge approaches. Light winds and
adequate boundary layer moisture could lead to radiational fog
forming over the coastal counties late tonight into early Tuesday
morning.

LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Sunday)...

Moisture advection is prog to increase Tuesday night across
primarily the western half of the CWA as a southeasterly LLJ
develops. Min temps should be approx 5 degrees warmer than Monday
night due to the increase in moisture and additional cloud cover.
Wednesday should remain dry for the morning...and even most of the
afternoon. By late in the afternoon, a sfc front is prog to dip
south into the NW Brush Country. Moisture pooling across the Rio
Grande Plains ahead of this boundary...coupled with weak H5
perturbations advecting across the region...and a modest 50 to 60kt
upper level jet streak moving overhead should result in late day
convective development along/near the Rio Grande. Instability is not
overly great for widespread deep convection...but moisture depth and
synoptic forcing should result in at least chance POPs for Wed
evening...with chances much lower farther east across the Coastal
Plains and Victoria where the airmass will be more stable. Weakening
sfc front is prog to push south across all of S TX Wed night with
sfc high pressure influencing area weather for Thursday. Quasi
cooler temps are expected for Thursday before a brief warm up occurs
Friday. Another reinforcing push of sfc high pressure should occur
for Saturday before a potentially greater increase in deep layer
moisture occurs on Sunday. Carried no mention of precip beyond Wed
night...although may eventually need to introduce minimal POPs
associated with moisture advection for Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    59  86  64  83  60  /   0   0  10  10  20
Victoria          56  86  61  84  58  /   0   0  10  10  20
Laredo            65  92  68  84  62  /   0   0  10  20  40
Alice             58  89  65  86  60  /   0   0  10  10  30
Rockport          62  82  66  80  58  /   0   0  10  10  20
Cotulla           61  91  64  84  59  /   0   0  10  20  30
Kingsville        58  88  65  86  61  /   0   0  10  10  20
Navy Corpus       64  82  68  82  62  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION


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