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000
FXUS64 KHGX 242337
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

♬ Guess who`s back...back again! Humidity`s back...tell a friend! ♬
I`m sure y`all felt the difference outside between this morning and
Tuesday morning as temperatures ran 10-15°F warmer due to increasing
moisture. It felt flat out muggy and gross outside this morning, and
don`t expect that to change anytime soon. Surface high pressure
continues to sit off to our east allowing for warm, moist Gulf air
to funnel in to Southeast Texas. PW values will generally remain in
the 1.2"-1.4" range (75th percentile: ~1.40") throughout the short
term period. With northwesterly flow aloft being established due to
ridging aloft building in, we`ll see a few passing shortwaves that
may be enough to kick off some isolated light rain showers around
the area. A fairly robust subsidence inversion layer aloft between
850-750mb will likely inhibit most of the coverage. Cloud cover
scattering out this afternoon will allow for temperatures to warm
into the low to mid 80s. Going into tonight, low-level cloud cover
will build in again from southwest to northeast leading to a
slightly milder night as we bottom out in the upper 60s to low 70s.
There is some potential for patchy fog east of I-45 tonight into
Thursday morning.

Thursday is essentially a rinse and repeat forecast, but with one
difference...it`s gonna be a bit breezy! Temperatures in the
afternoon will top out in the low to mid 80s once again. With an
upper level trough approaching from the southwestern CONUS, a
resultant surface low develops on the lee side of the Rockies on
Thursday leading to a tightening pressure gradient. Southwest flow
aloft becomes established by Thursday night as the upper level
trough transitions to the Central Plains and evolves to have an
embedded upper low. Deepening surface low pressure results in the
development of a 25-35 kt LLJ in Central Texas that drifts over
Southeast Texas beginning Thursday afternoon. By Thursday night, the
LLJ will strengthen to 35-45 kt, so the elevated winds will persist
during the overnight hours. Low level cloud cover filling back in on
Thursday night combined with elevated winds mean that we won`t see
much cooling. I nudged temperatures up a little bit above guidance
to reflect widespread lows in the low 70s. This`ll be another night
that we may come close to some record high minimum temperatures.
That`s a sign of things to come for the foreseeable future...and
there`s a fairly decent chance that this past Monday night/Tuesday
morning may have been our last time in the 50s till the fall. This
is the one time that I hope I`m wrong!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

♬ Humidity`s created a monster, the atmosphere don`t want
seasonable no more, it`s summer, spring`s chopped liver ♬

Hopefully y`all have taken advantage of our stretch of fair
weather and temperatures that have been warm, but not too
hot...because the long term portion of the forecast will give us a
bit of change on both fronts at one point or another this weekend
into the first half of next week.

We`ll start by shifting things up to a bit more of an unsettled
pattern. Come Friday morning, the subtle ridging that`s been in
place over the region will be amplifying, but it will also have
moved off to the east. Both of these will be in response to the
arrival of a stout upper trough dropping off the Colorado Rockies.
Of course, this will induce lee cyclogenesis over the Central
Plains, and guidance continues to indicate a pretty strong surface
low. In turn, this induces increased southerly low level winds
feeding rich, Gulf air into Texas.

And...you might think I`m setting things up to talk about a severe
thunderstorm setup. While that`s definitely true for somewhere
(north of here), it`s not really a driving concern in our area.
While we`ll have warm, moisture rich boundary layer air moving in,
it will be happening under southwest flow just aloft - which
should largely cap us off, moving the primary focus for severe
weather up to the dryline/cold front. Now, with the front making
its way to the region, we are not completely devoid of a severe
threat. Those folks way up in our northwest (the Caldwell, B/CS,
Madisonville, Crockett types) will need to be aware of just how
far the front can push before stalling out, or how far ahead of
the front the threat can ride on outflow boundaries, and the
storm/severe threat is not zero. But with both the surface low and
upper trough already so far north and ejecting to the Great Lakes,
that will cause the front to stall out short of our area.

Saturday, we take our next crack at things as the next upper
trough makes its way in. Though this trough looks to dig a little
deeper, it doesn`t look quite as potent, the surface low looks
weaker, and is probably a bit slower. Again, this should keep us
capped off and focus the severe threat to the north in Oklahoma
and North Texas. Our northern spots may again be keeping an eye
out to the north for some residual nighttime action, but with the
focusing mechanism even further to the northwest, odds should be
even lower, putting Saturday as the fairer day of the weekend. It
should also be noticeably hotter, with highs in the upper half of
the 80s.

As the upper trough continues to push its way through the Plains
Sunday into Monday, we`ll finally see a better chance of rain and
storms in the area. Without much change in the broader
environment, the best severe potential again is likely to mostly
be north of the area. But, as initiation will be closer to the
area, there`ll be a marginally better shot at a stronger storm or
two. There is a chance we could see some briefly heavy rain in the
stronger stuff, as both NAEFS and EPS indicate that we`ll have
meridional flow above the 90th percentile, which also coincides
with some stout moisture transport into/through the area. Though
that upper trough will be exiting, another shortwave trough looks
to ride its coattails across North Texas, helping keep the fun
going through Monday, and perhaps even into Tuesday with more
on/off rounds of showers and storms. Towards mid-week, we`ll
finally start to see some ridging aloft try to build in, which
will give us a shot at some fairer weather. However, it`s worth
noting that deterministic guidance several more shortwaves in the
pattern, so we may not see the tap turn entirely off. Something to
pay attention to in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Another round of MVFR CIGs expected again with the potential for
brief periods of IFR overnight. SE winds become light and variable
overnight. VFR expected to return by mid-morning Thursday. A
tightening pressure gradient will create gusty conditions by
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 406 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Moderate onshore flow and fairly low seas will continue through
Thursday morning. Winds and seas will be on an upward climb late
Thursday and into the weekend as a long fetch of moderate to
strong southeast winds set up across the Gulf. Small Craft
Advisories are likely Friday into Saturday night.

At the coast, the persistent onshore winds will help to push water
levels up, so going into the weekend as those winds strengthen, we
may need to keep an eye on how high above astronomical tides those
water levels will push. Additionally, the stronger winds should
increase the threat for rip currents going into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 406 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Minor river flooding continues along portions of the Trinity River
due to runoff from previous rounds of rainfall. The Trinity River at
Liberty (LBYT2) remains in minor flood stage, but is on a downward
trend and is forecast to fall out of flood stage as early as late
this afternoon/early this evening. The Trinity River at Moss Bluff
(MBFT2) is still on an upward trend in minor flood stage and is
forecast to reach its crest on Thursday afternoon. This site is
forecast to remain in minor flood stage until further notice. The
Trinity River at Riverside (RVRT2) will remain in action stage going
into the weekend.

You can monitor current and forecast conditions at this weblink:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=HGX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  68  84  72  83 /   0  10   0  50
Houston (IAH)  68  84  72  85 /   0  10   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  71  79  73  80 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Luchs