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000
FXUS64 KLCH 250739
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
239 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Weak high pressure remains the main factor influencing our weather
and will continue to be so for most of the short-term forecast.
Across Arkansas, a frontal boundary is slowly moving southward and
will increase our pressure gradient. 

As the PG builds, winds will increase, especially on Friday and
Saturday, with advisories likely both inland and offshore. At the
surface, high pressure will remain to our east, which will
continue to push warm, moist Gulf air into the southeast US.
Temperatures will continue to slowly rise through the weekend,
with our highs in the mid- to upper-80s. This strong onshore flow
is also a concern for coastal flooding during high tide. By
Sunday, the PG will start to lessen and the winds will weaken. 

A robust upper-level trough will be ejected from the Rockies this
weekend. This system will mainly impact north Louisiana and Texas,
with little in the way of convection for our area until Monday. 
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

As the forecast period begins, the pattern will continue to see high
pressure at the surface off the southeast US coast ridging into the
forecast area providing southerly flow that will bring in warm and
moist Gulf of Mexico air. Another deep low pressure system is
expected to be over the Plains that will tighten the gradient across
the region with very breezy and gusty south winds that are currently
projected to be sustained in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts
around 35 mph. Therefore, there is a good chance that a wind
advisory may be needed for Sunday.

The one change that will begin on late Sunday will be the upper
level ridge weakening and shifting to the east. This will allow a
short wave to move west to east into the forecast area late in the
day. By that time, plenty of Gulf moisture will be around with PWAT
values ranging from 1.40 to 1.75 inches, with the higher values
above the 90th percentile of SPC daily climo. Also, the higher
numbers will be over western portions of the forecast area.
Therefore, rain chances will be introduced to the forecast for
southeast Texas and west central Louisiana to coincide with the
higher moisture values and weakness aloft.

Decent instability will also be noted on Sunday afternoon and
evening with CAPE values over 2000 j/kg to go along with progged
slow storm motion speed with movement becoming parallel to the mid
level flow. Therefore, with the high atmospheric moisture content,
the stronger convection will have some potential to produce high
rainfall rates over a prolonged time for a location. Therefore, WPC
will have southeast Texas into a portion of west central Louisiana
outlined in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) Potential for
Excessive Rainfall.

The weakness aloft will continue to expand east on Monday with the
high moisture content hanging around with PWAT values in the 1.50 to
1.75 inch range, again above 90th percentile of SPC daily climo,
with 100H-50H mean layer relative humidity in the 60 to 70 percent
range. Again, slow storm motions are progged along with movement
parallel to the mid level flow. Favorable instability will be
hanging around with CAPE near or above 2000 j/kg. Therefore, the
stronger storms again will have the potential for high rainfall
rates that may stay over a location for a prolonged period.
Therefore, WPC will have a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) Potential
for Excessive Rainfall for portions of southeast Texas and central
Louisiana, with the remainder of the forecast area in a Marginal
Risk.

The unsettled pattern will continue into Tuesday before upper level
ridging begins to build back into the forecast area for mid week.

07/Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions will continue to prevail throughout the period. The
only exception will be later tonight as we approach sunrise, as
some patchy fog may begin to develop. Overall the signal for fog
isn`t too great so kept with tempo groups to account for this.
Otherwise, no concerns expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Starting on today winds will start to increase becoming moderate
to strong. Winds will continue to increase on Friday with gusts up
to 30 knots. The elevated winds will continue on Saturday as well
before weakening on Sunday. Waves will also build in the outer
waters reaching 7 feet or more by Friday morning. Lakes and bays
will be rough to very rough conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory is likely starting on Thursday night and
lasting through Saturday as the pressure gradient further
tightens across the area building seas further into the weekend
under a strong southerly regime.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  65  85  68 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  82  70  82  72 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  85  68  85  72 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  82  70  82  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...17