Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 172345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
645 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Likelihood for low CIGS (mostly MVFR) will target CDS before
sunrise Sunday on moistening E winds, before clearing out around
noon. A short window for TSRA will also be present at CDS after
daybreak, though a TEMPO in later forecasts appears best suited
once this timing and development becomes more certain.

Some very light rain could even impact LBB and PVW by daybreak,
before southerly winds veer SW and eventually W by mid-afternoon
ahead of strong winds and blowing dust. An AWW will be issued for
LBB once the timing of 30+ knot winds improves. The arrival of
the highest winds has slowed with the latest models and looks to
hold off at LBB until at least 5 PM, but any additional slowing of
the parent storm would cause further delay.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/

Solutions continue to tighten grouping on the storm expected to
deepen from the 4-corners into the northwest Texas Panhandle late
Sunday. Wind fields will increase aloft - just over 100 knots at
the 500 millibar level - by late Sunday and crossing our northern
zones Sunday night. Surface pressures will fall Sunday afternoon
and evening and a Pacific Cold front will push through as well
late Sunday. Anyway, all ingredients seem in place for a strong
and potentially high wind event developing late tomorrow and
possibly continuing overnight and into early Monday. We opted to
issue a Wind Advisory area-wide Sunday afternoon through 7 am
Sunday morning and let next shifts determine need for a High Wind

In advance, we will see continued southwest flow of mid level
moisture, and possibly a burst of lift enough for sprinkles or
light showers via top-down moistening early Sunday before
encountering enough instability in our east/northeast counties to
mention a low chance of thunder. Did not play the sprinkles at
this point - believe the WRF/NAM is overplaying the moisture and
lift - but acknowledge the possibility.

After the storm passes Monday, a Canadian-type cold front will
push southward lowering temperatures near or a little below normal
Tuesday. Flow should quickly return to the southwest Wednesday
with increasing breezes and further warming later in the week as
the next round of upper troughing spreads through the
intermountain west. RMcQueen

With the tightening grouping/increasing confidence in models the
pattern late Sunday is more closely resembling the classic
Southern Plains outbreak pattern. Timing is still a little
unclear - the storm still could be slow enough to delay strongest
winds until Sunday evening - but close enough for us to issue a
Red Flag Warning area-wide Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. We
have added more critical wording to some of our products in
preparation for this storm - the Storm Prediction Center is a bit
reluctant to go Extremely Critical yet, but this is possible. So,
watch for possible further upgrade in product wording overnight.

On Monday, strong northwest winds are likely to start the day and
may develop into critical fire weather conditions again. Opted
against extending the Red Flag Warning through Monday, or a Fire
Weather Watch, to guard against product overload and allow later
shifts a little more flexibility in product handling. But, be
aware Monday looms as a possible critical day.

A lull Tuesday will be followed by improving south to southwest
breezes Wednesday and beyond in advance of the next round of
storminess moving into the intermountain west late next week.
Elevated or Critical fire weather conditions will be possible at
least Thursday through next Saturday. RMcQueen


Red Flag Warning from noon Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for

Wind Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for TXZ021>044.



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