Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 232219

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
619 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 413 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2018

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a ridge extending from the
Plains to central Canada and a trof over eastern N America. Result
is another day of nw flow over the Upper Great Lakes. Under a dry
air mass, it`s been another sunny day. However, there have been some
clouds off Lake Superior into a small part of n central Upper MI as
an area of shallow moisture and slightly colder air (a couple of C
drop at the inversion base) moved across the lake. Temps currently
range from the mid/upper 20s near Lake Superior to the mid/upper 30s
toward the MI/WI state line.

With loss of daytime heating, may see stratocu off the lake expand a
bit this evening into n central/nw Upper MI and perhaps spread well
inland under low-level ne to e winds. Could be bkn cloud cover
locally for a time. Overnight, winds veer more easterly which would
shift any lake stratocu to just mainly the Keweenaw. Otherwise, some
high clouds will gradually spread e into mainly western and s
central Upper MI. Cloud cover shouldn`t have a big impact on min
temps. Favored the lwr end of guidance since that has worked well in
recent days. Expect mins down into the single digits in the
interior, ranging up into the teens along the Great Lakes.

Another quiet day is on tap for Sat. There may be some morning
stratocu over the Keweenaw and perhaps also in Menominee county
under easterly flow. Otherwise, sun will be filtered by some high
clouds, especially w and s. Max temps will be similar to today,
ranging from around 30F near Lake Superior to near 40F toward the
MI/WI state line. There will be a cool ene wind.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 425 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2018

The benign weather pattern that has been prevailing starts breaking
down toward the tail end of the weekend. Initially closed low over
the western through central Plains early next week becomes an open
wave as it approaches the U.P. Moisture out ahead of the approaching
system will pool into the region, allowing for precip chances to be
on the increase Monday into Tuesday. While snow looks probable at
the onset in the western U.P, precip type will transition over to
rain during the day Monday as temps rise well above the freezing
mark. As the temps drop back off toward freezing Monday night into
early Tuesday, a wintry mix looks more likely, with snow prevailing
over Lake Superior. Precip chances should clear out of the area late
Tuesday, although could remain a bit unsettled overall through the
end of the week.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 619 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2018

VFR conditions are expected at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst period.
Some lake effect clouds are possible off Lake Superior at KSAW this
evening and at KCMX tonight into Sat morning. However, there is
uncertainty in coverage and location of cloud development, so only
sct clouds with bases around 2000ft were mentioned.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 413 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2018

Strong high pres over southern Hudson Bay will shift e, reaching
Quebec Sat and Sun. As this occurs, expect generally ne to e winds
of 15-25kt across Lake Superior tonight/Sat, except up to 30kt over
the far western part of the lake. Winds will then veer more e to se
on Sun with the stronger winds shifting to the eastern part of the
lake. Ahead of an approaching low pres trof, winds may reach up to
30kt at times over eastern Lake Superior Mon/Tue. Winds will be
lighter over the western part of the lake. Behind the trof, winds
should be under 20kt on Wed.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


SHORT TERM...Rolfson
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