Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 260946
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
546 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Rain chances
return with Friday and Saturday with crossing areas of low
pressure and cold fronts.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Stratocu in NW flow and upper troughing should gradually erode
this morning as sfc high pressure builds in, winds back, and the
trough exits. Otherwise, dry weather and patchy high clouds are
expected under the high, with temperatures a few degrees below
the seasonal average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A srn stream low is progged to advance from the lower TN Valley
to the Mid Atlantic region tonight and Friday. The operational GFS
is an outlier compared to other models and ensembles, with its
more aggressive phasing with an approaching nrn stream trough.
The GFS solution would mean more rain for Wrn PA, Nrn WV and
MD. Continued with a blend of guidance leaning toward the NAM
and ECMWF, keeping slight chc to chc POPs generally near and E
of a DUJ- PIT- MGW line. Also included a period of likely POPs
for rain E of MGW.

The initial nrn stream trough on the leading edge of a deepening
upper low over Canada, and its associated cold front, is
progged for a late Fri/Fri night passage. Maintain chance POPs
for much of the area, though did increase to likely N of PIT
where more favorable moisture and lift is progged.

Another upper trough rotating around the Canadian low, and its
reinforcing cold front, is progged to cross the region Saturday.
Scattered to numerous showers are expected through the day.
These should diminish Saturday night as the trough axis shifts
E, through maintained slight to low chance POPs through late
Saturday night with the area in close proximity to the upper
low as it drifts through NY. After near seasonal temperatures to
close out the work week, readings of 10 to 15 degrees below
average are expected for the start of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly dry, but unseasonably cool, weather is expected Sunday as
high pressure builds under the exiting upper low/trough.
A building ridge should then maintain dry weather and warming
temperatures through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stratocumulus will hang tough for a few more hours, with mostly
MVFR ceilings lingering. Some spotty MVFR fog will also persist
a bit past 12Z in portions of southeast Ohio. Later this
morning, building high pressure will break up the low clouds,
with VFR conditions expected areawide by midday. Favorable
flying conditions will continue through the afternoon and most
of the night as well, although advancing high clouds will slowly
lower and thicken with time. Some showers may show up east of
Pittsburgh prior to 12Z Friday as low pressure skims the area.

OUTLOOK...
The next chance for general restrictions is expected with the
crossing of weak low pressure on Friday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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