Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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758
FXUS61 KRLX 261915
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
315 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper trough through Sunday. Dry with high pressure for
Memorial Day. Unsettled weather should return by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Saturday...

Scattered convection developing, but has been a bit hampered
over the southern mountains with the ongoing shower activity
from the morning and the cloud debris associated with it.
Convection should peak over the next few hours with the
heating, and then wane tonight. Leaving at least slight chance
POPs in during the overnight with the approaching upper trough.
During the day Sunday, expect this trough to move over the
mountains, and will see a significant decrease in the dewpoints
aloft in the mid and upper levels, so POPs will erode from
northwest to southeast. By 00Z Monday, shower chances will be
confined to the mountains. No changes to the general thunder
outlook from SPC for our area. Through tonight, the slight risk
of excessive just brush up against our border, thanks largely
to the morning shower activity that was stationary just over
into the RNK/MRX territory, and marginal for the rest of our
CWA.

As stated many times over the last week or so, this more
resembles a mid summer pattern than spring time. This includes
the overnight lows which will be governed again by the high 60s
dewpoints in the area lowlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Saturday...

5H ridge builds in over the Great Lakes with virtually nil
atmospheric flow at the mid and upper levels. The leads to a
rather stagnant weather pattern with the sensible weather being
driven by diurnal convection. Atmospheric column not overly
moist so main areas for afternoon shower and thunderstorm
activity will be over the elevated terrain of the eastern
mountains. Will not see much day-to-day changes in max and min
temps with each day a carbon copy of the last.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 PM Saturday...

Considerable amount of uncertainty in the extended period, as
the forecast will hinge on the track of Alberto. Will stay close
to the consensus blend of the models which tends to spread the
chances for rain across a more widespread area with generally
chance pops. Can say with confidence that the trend will be for
an upswing in shower activity from about midweek onwards as the
pattern opens up the middle Appalachian region up to increasing
amounts of tropical moisture each day. A northern stream wave
will drop down across the Great Lakes for next weekend and
uncertainty remains on how this feature will interact with
remnants of Alberto, but even this should be well north of the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...

Scattered convection area wide at this hour expected to continue
through around 01Z Sunday, and could increase slightly in
coverage. This makes the VCTS/CB near term 0-6 hour forecast the
most popular bet this afternoon. Very difficult to use actual
TSRA even in the near term, but is definitely a possible
scenario going forward. Some modest wind gusts to 25kts possible
in thunder.

Will put fog in EKN tonight given the fog under BKN/OVC skies
last night and in the same atmosphere. As stated yesterday, any
terminals that receive rain will have to have a fog potential
for the overnight reevaluated.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TSRA may be need at terminals in the next 6
hours. May need fog tonight if terminals receive rain.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 05/25/18
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...26



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