Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 240004
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
804 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.UPDATE...

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms in Irwin and Ben Hill counties
will move out of the area in the next couple of hours, and we
expect dry conditions for the remainder of the night.

&&

.AVIATION...

[Through 00z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period with westerly winds around 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [300 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The slow moving cold front is still lingering across the western
portion of our forecast area. Some isolated showers and
thunderstorms have formed out ahead of this and are marching
north. Some gusty winds and small hail are the most expected out
of these storms today. The already limited activity will be
tempered from west to east throughout the evening as the front
continues to slowly shift east.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Upper low will finally swing through the southeastern states on
Tuesday. There might be just enough deep layer moisture and lift
on the southern fringe of the low to spark a few light showers
during the day across the northern portion of the forecast area.
Thereafter, a drier airmass will move into the region for
Wednesday with no rain expected. Temperatures will be near
seasonal normals, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and
lows in the mid to upper 50s.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
A fast-moving and potent mid-level shortwave will approach the
region on Thursday, bringing another chance for rain. Guidance
currently is not indicating much instability ahead of this
feature. However, with the strength of the shortwave and
associated mid-level flow, will need to monitor for the potential
for isolated strong storms.

Beyond this system, the pattern appears to shift to a more typical
late-spring setup, with ridge building into the eastern portion of
the country. This should lead to drier and warmer weather as we
move into the weekend and early next week.


.MARINE...
Winds and seas will slowly decrease tonight with conditions
expected to remain below headline criteria through the rest of the
week.


.FIRE WEATHER...
Although dispersion values will likely exceed critical thresholds
this afternoon and early evening, RH values will remain over 50
percent across our area today. Relatively moist conditions will
persist through the next several days, so no fire weather concerns
are anticipated throughout this period.


.HYDROLOGY...
Only minor rises on area rivers are expected following Sunday`s
rainfall, with no river flooding concerns expected.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   59  80  57  81  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
Panama City   62  74  60  76  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        55  76  56  78  56 /  10  10   0   0   0
Albany        57  76  57  78  57 /  10  20  10   0   0
Valdosta      59  78  58  78  58 /  10  10  10   0   0
Cross City    61  78  60  78  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  63  76  61  76  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Humphreys
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Camp


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