Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 211231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2018 Apr 21 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 21-Apr 23 2018 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 21-Apr 23 2018

            Apr 21     Apr 22     Apr 23
00-03UT        3          3          2
03-06UT        3          3          2
06-09UT        3          3          2
09-12UT        2          2          1
12-15UT        3          2          1
15-18UT        2          2          1
18-21UT        2          2          1
21-00UT        4          2          1

Rationale: Unsettled to active levels are expected on day one (21 Apr)
due to continued coronal hole high speed stream activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 21-Apr 23 2018

              Apr 21  Apr 22  Apr 23
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 21-Apr 23 2018

              Apr 21        Apr 22        Apr 23
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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