Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-210715-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
205 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...ABNORMALLY DRY TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

Dry conditions continue across a large portion of the region.
December was wet and locations across the eastern half of the
region did see a decent rainfall in March, but otherwise rain has
been lacking for many locations since hurricane Harvey back in
August 2017. We have seen a number of days this spring with very
low relative humidity values and gusty winds, which are not
helping with the dry conditions that are present. Many locations
over the western third of south central Texas have reported less
than one inch of rainfall since January 1, 2018. We are now into
the wettest period of the year so the potential for rainfall
may increase. After two years of average to above average
rainfall area lakes and reservoirs remain in good shape with
levels the highest that have been observed in several years,
despite the recent lack of rainfall. Nine counties currently have
county-wide burn bans due to continuing dry conditions. Several
counties have seen grass and brush fires the last few months and
officials are expecting additional fires if wetting rains are not
observed.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting La Nina
conditions will transition to ENSO neutral conditions from spring
into the summer. Even though La Nina and El Nino events have
significant impacts across South Texas, other circulations across
the globe help drive weather patterns too, so we should not just
be looking at one pattern, but others as well to potentially
provide rainfall for the region.

The US Drought Monitor (USDM) valid April 17th and issued on
April 19th indicated drought conditions getting worse across
portions of South Central Texas. Abnormally dry (D0) to Extreme
(D3) drought conditions were present across South Central Texas.
The driest locations were located along and to the west of
Interstate 35.

Currently 65 percent of the state is in Abnormally dry (D0) to
Exceptional (D4) drought. The eastern and northeastern parts of
the state currently have no drought.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

Fire danger was moderate to high. There was a small areas of very
high fire danger in the Rio Grande Plains. If wetting rainfall is
not observed then fire danger threats will continue to increase.

As of April 19th, there were 9 counties with county-wide burn
bans in effect across south Central Texas. There were 24 counties
with no burn bans currently in effect.

Counties that currently have burn bans in place:

Dimmit
Edwards
Frio
Kinney
Llano
Travis
Uvalde
Val Verde
Williamson

Counties currently without county-wide burn bans:

Atascosa
Bandera
Bastrop
Bexar
Blanco
Burnet
Caldwell
Comal
DeWitt
Fayette
Gillespie
Gonzales
Guadalupe
Hays
Karnes
Kendall
Kerr
Lavaca
Lee
Maverick
Medina
Real
Wilson
Zavala

Residents in all counties should contact their local city or
county web site, Judge`s office or Fire Marshall before deciding
to conduct any type of outdoor burning as burn bans may be issued
before the next update of this drought statement.

The April 18th County Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) showed
the following KBDI values:

0-200        200-300     300-400      400-500     500-600

Bastrop      Comal       Atascosa     Bandera     Kinney
Bexar        Gonzales    Blanco       Dimmit      Maverick
Caldwell     Hays        Burnet       Edwards     Real
Fayette      Medina      DeWitt       Gillespie
Guadalupe    Lavaca      Frio         Kerr
Lee          Williamson  Karnes       Uvalde
Travis       Wilson      Kendall      Val Verde
                         Llano        Zavala

The Texas Forest Service uses the KBDI as a means for relating
current and recent weather conditions to potential or expected
fire behavior. The KBDI is a numerical index calculated daily for
each county. Each number is an estimate of the amount of
precipitation, in hundredths of an inch, needed to bring the soil
back to saturation. The index ranges from zero to 800, with zero
representing a saturated soil and 800 a completely dry soil.
Remember, that fire danger can change quickly from one day to
another as winds and relative humidity vary.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

The Texas Crop and Weather Report issued by Texas A&M on April
10th reported temperatures varied day to day from the 60s into
the high 80s, however a cold front brought 40-degree highs late in
the reporting period. moisture conditions continue to be dry.
Pecan trees were beginning to break buds. Spring green up and
bluebonnets were in full bloom. Peaches bloomed. Cotton planting
should be completed soon. Weed control and fertilization increased
on improved pastures. Bermuda grass growth was slow. Spring
shearing of sheep and Angora goats was underway. Livestock were in
fair condition, but supplemental feeding and monitoring of water
was necessary for livestock and wildlife.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

The next several days are expected to see little precipitation
and near to below average temperatures.

Precipitation from January 1, 2018 to midnight April 18, 2018
and departure from normal:

                   2018       Normal  Departure from   Percent of
                                          Normal      Normal to Date
Austin Mabry       5.88        8.13       -2.25          72%
Austin Bergstrom   7.94        8.48       -0.54          94%
San Antonio        6.22        6.97       -0.75          89%
Del Rio            0.33        3.62       -3.29           9%

For April to date, Del Rio has received 0.01 of an inch of rain.
This is 0.87 of an inch below the normal of 0.88 of an inch. The
average temperature for April to date is 71.4 degrees. This is
1.2 degrees above the normal of 70.2 degrees.

For April to date, San Antonio International Airport has received
0.01 of an inch of rain. This is 1.10 inches below the normal of
1.11 inches. The average temperature at the San Antonio
International Airport for April to date is 67.6 degrees. This is
0.2 degrees below the normal of 67.8 degrees.

For April to date, Austin Mabry has received 0.15 of an inch of
rain. This is 0.98 of an inch below the normal of 1.13 inches.
The average temperature at Austin Mabry for April to date is 66.6
degrees. This is 1.2 degrees below the normal of 67.8 degrees.

For April to date, Austin Bergstrom International Airport has
received 0.41 of an inch of rain. This is 0.78 of an inch below
the normal of 1.19 inches. The average temperature at the Austin
Bergstrom International Airport for April to date is 64.6
degrees. This is 1.2 degrees below the normal of 65.8 degrees.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

The latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8 to 14 day outlook
issued April 18th and valid April 26th through May 2nd was
indicating stronger signals for near to slightly above average
temperatures and stronger signals for slightly above
precipitation.

The longer range outlook for May 2018 through July 2018 created
on April 19th was indicating stronger signals for above average
temperatures and below average precipitation.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

Winter and early spring have seen below average precipitation.
December did see above average rainfall in many locations, but
the remainder of the period has been dry, especially across the
west. This continued lack of rainfall has caused drought
conditions to develop and get worse.

The 7 day stream flow averages for the Rio Grande and San Antonio
basins were normal (25-75 percent) with the Frio, Nueces, lower
Guadalupe and Colorado basins seeing below average (10-24 percent)
stream flows. The upper Guadalupe was reporting much below normal
(less than 10 percent) stream flows.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF April 19th...

Below is a list of reservoirs with the latest elevations and
normal pools.

              Conservation Pool    Latest Elevation    Difference
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

Lake Amistad        1117                1093.6           -23.4
Medina Lake         1064.2              1044.6           -19.6
Canyon Lake          909                 905.5            -3.5
Lake Georgetown      791                 779.9           -11.1
Lake Buchanan       1020                1015.9            -4.1
Lake Travis          681                 668.0           -13.0

Restrictions...

The San Antonio Water System (SAWS) is currently in Year Round
water conservation measures.

Latest Readings from the Edwards Aquifer:

 Current      2017 Level   Departure    April  Departure from
  Level      on this date  from 2017   Average       Average

 663.1 FT      681.0 FT    -17.9 FT     667.1 FT      -4.0 FT

Many communities across South Central Texas continue to have
year round conservation measures in place.

The Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer Conservation District is
currently in no drought status.

Location          Current Water Restrictions

Fredericksburg    Stage 1
New Braunfels     Non-Stage Rules - Year round conservation
San Marcos        Year round conservation measures
Uvalde            Stage 1
Austin            Conservation Stage
Kerrville         Year round conservation measures

All cities continue to warn residents that stricter restrictions
could return at any time if drier conditions develop.

Locations that do not currently have mandatory restrictions
continue to strongly promote year round water conservation.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

This product will be issued again on May 3, 2018 or sooner if
conditions warrant.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

For further information on the drought impacting South Central
Texas, please visit the following web addresses.

Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service:
weather.gov/austin
weatehr.gov/sanantonio
weatehr.gov/ewx

Climate Prediction Center:
cpc.ncep.noaa/gov

U.S. Drought Monitor:
droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Office of the Texas State Climatologist:
climatexas.tamu.edu

United States Geologic Survey (USGS):
water.usgs.gov

United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE):
swf.usace.army.mil

International BOundary and Water Commission:
ibwc.state/gov

Acknowledgments...

The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA`s
National Weather Service, National Climatic Data Center, the
USDA, State and Regional Center Climatologist and the National
Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this statement has
been  gathered from NWS and FAA Observation sites, State
Cooperative Extension Service, the USDA, USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

If you have any questions or comments about this Drought
Information Statement, please contact...

National Weather Service
2090 Airport Road
New Braunfels Texas 78130
830-606-3617 Press 2

$$



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