Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1246 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number Three for
Central and much of Southern Indiana...

The spring flood potential outlook covering mid-March through mid-May
for the White, Wabash, and East Fork White Rivers and their
tributaries is near normal south of I-70 and slightly below normal
north of I-70. A near normal to slightly below normal risk means
that minor flooding is expected at times on the Wabash, lower
White, and East Fork White, with isolated moderate flooding
possible. This is an overall river flood risk through mid-May,
but remember that locally heavy rainfall from any particular
system could produce a locally enhanced short term flood risk, and
this is a concern for the current system moving through.

Over the last three months, precipitation across central and
southern portions of the state ranged from around 70 percent to
130 percent of normal, with the majority of the area in the 90 to
110 percent range. Abnormally dry (D0) conditions persist across
parts of central and southwestern Indiana. Precipitation over the
last 14 days varied from half an inch to three inches with a few
locally higher amounts.

Soil moisture across Indiana is below normal. There is no snow
depth or river ice in the state. Seven day average streamflow is
currently near normal across much of central Indiana, with above
normal streamflow across southeastern Indiana and below normal
streamflow in the Wabash basin.

The forecast for the next seven days shows precipitation totals
of around a quarter inch or so over the Ohio River increasing
heading north, with much of central and northern Indiana expected
to see one to two inches. Most of this is forecast to arrive in
the next 24 hours with a strong storm system that is moving
through the Ohio Valley. This system itself is expected to bring
minor flooding to parts of area rivers in the next few days, and
will present a locally higher short term flood risk. The 8 to 14
day outlook indicates a lean toward above normal precipitation and
near normal temperatures. The 90 day seasonal outlook for March
through May is unchanged from the previous flood outlook issuance,
showing a lean toward both above normal precipitation and above
normal temperatures.

There is no river ice in central and southern Indiana and thus no
risk of ice jam flooding this spring.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville         13.0   15.0   18.0 :  31   31   19   19   <5   <5
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh           11.0   14.0   17.0 :  54   64   20   25   <5   <5
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville           9.0   11.0   15.0 :  10   18    7   10   <5   <5
:East Fork White River
Columbus             9.0   14.0   16.0 :  32   33   <5   <5   <5   <5
Rivervale           20.0   30.0   35.0 :  64   68    6   10   <5   <5
Bedford             20.0   27.0   32.0 :  48   52   10   13   <5   <5
Seymour             12.0   17.0   19.0 :  76   91   26   26   <5   <5
Shoals              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  24   36   11   16   <5   <5
Williams             8.0   14.0   20.0 :  53   61   11   17   <5   <5
:Eel River
Bowling Green       15.0   20.0   23.0 :  55   60   20   22   <5    6
:Flatrock River
Columbus            11.0   15.0   19.0 :  51   38    6   <5   <5   <5
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon              17.0   27.0   32.0 :  20   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville      15.0   17.0   21.0 :  14   23   <5   16   <5    8
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi               8.0   12.0   15.0 :  28   44   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Wabash River
Covington           16.0   24.0   29.0 :  83   92   13   18   <5   <5
Hutsonville Legac   16.0   24.0   28.0 :  92  >95   15   20   <5   <5
Lafayette           11.0   18.0   26.0 :  86   93   21   30   <5   <5
Mount Carmel        19.0   25.0   32.0 :  71   81   32   43   <5   <5
Montezuma           14.0   24.0   31.0 :  92  >95   23   24   <5   <5
Riverton            15.0   22.0   26.0 :  91  >95   27   30   <5   <5
Terre Haute         16.5   24.5   30.0 :  90   93   26   17   <5   <5
Vincennes           16.0   22.0   28.0 :  61   78   22   25   <5   <5
:White River
Anderson            10.0   15.0   19.0 :  21   32    6    6   <5   <5
Eagle Valley Powe  603.0  607.0  610.0 :  36   48   <5   10   <5   <5
Centerton           12.0   16.0   19.0 :  35   46   <5   10   <5   <5
Elliston            18.0   25.0   29.0 :  79   86   17   22   <5   <5
Edwardsport         15.0   22.0   25.0 :  80   89   17   23   <5   <5
Hazleton            16.0   24.0   28.0 :  82   86   22   30   <5    6
Indianapolis        16.0   20.0   25.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Muncie               9.0   12.0   15.0 :  10   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
Noblesville         14.0   19.0   22.0 :  23   39    6    7   <5   <5
Nora                11.0   16.0   19.0 :  23   38    7    8   <5   <5
Newberry            13.0   19.0   24.0 :  64   78   19   33   <5   <5
Petersburg          16.0   23.5   26.0 :  83   84   25   27    7    6
Ravenswood           6.0   10.0   12.0 :  29   47    7    8   <5   <5
Spencer             14.0   20.0   24.0 :  51   80    9   18   <5   <5
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette           10.0   15.0   19.5 :  57   59   17   21    8    9

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville           7.0    7.9    9.4   10.5   13.8   16.7   17.3
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh             5.2    7.3    8.9   11.4   13.6   14.8   15.1
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville            2.5    2.8    3.7    4.3    5.5    9.0   12.1
:East Fork White River
Columbus              1.5    2.3    3.5    7.0    9.8   12.2   13.4
Rivervale            12.3   14.1   18.7   21.7   24.9   29.2   30.2
Bedford              10.0   12.2   16.1   19.8   22.4   27.0   29.4
Seymour               8.1    9.8   12.1   15.5   17.0   17.9   18.4
Shoals                6.7    7.3   10.5   15.0   19.6   25.5   28.7
Williams              3.7    4.5    6.2    8.2   10.2   14.2   16.6
:Eel River
Bowling Green         8.6   11.0   12.9   15.5   19.3   21.4   21.7
:Flatrock River
Columbus              6.0    6.9    8.5   11.1   12.9   14.4   15.1
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon                5.1    5.7    7.5   11.4   15.8   19.2   22.2
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville        5.6    6.5    7.9    9.6   12.4   16.0   16.3
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi                4.3    4.7    5.7    6.7    8.2    9.5   11.0
:Wabash River
Covington            13.6   15.1   17.0   19.2   22.7   24.3   25.2
Hutsonville Legac    14.5   16.8   18.2   20.1   23.2   24.4   24.9
Lafayette             8.7   10.6   12.1   14.5   17.6   19.3   21.5
Mount Carmel         12.5   14.6   18.6   21.5   26.4   28.4   29.4
Montezuma            12.7   15.1   17.6   21.0   23.8   25.2   27.2
Riverton             12.6   15.6   16.9   18.8   22.3   23.7   24.3
Terre Haute          13.8   16.6   18.2   21.2   24.6   25.9   26.5
Vincennes            10.5   12.7   14.3   17.3   21.7   23.5   24.2
:White River
Anderson              5.9    6.3    7.3    8.6    9.6   11.0   16.5
Eagle Valley Powe   596.9  597.7  599.8  601.5  604.2  605.8  606.8
Centerton             3.4    4.7    7.6    9.9   13.4   15.2   15.9
Elliston             12.5   15.7   18.8   21.5   24.0   25.8   26.4
Edwardsport          10.4   12.8   16.2   18.6   20.5   23.2   23.5
Hazleton             11.7   13.6   18.2   20.8   23.4   26.2   27.2
Indianapolis          6.2    6.8    7.9    9.5   10.7   13.7   15.6
Muncie                5.7    6.1    6.6    7.3    8.0    8.9   11.5
Noblesville           7.2    8.2    9.3   11.3   13.6   17.1   19.8
Nora                  5.2    5.9    7.1    9.1   10.7   13.5   17.7
Newberry              6.2    8.2   11.6   14.8   17.9   20.8   21.4
Petersburg           11.1   13.6   18.7   21.0   23.6   25.5   26.2
Ravenswood            1.8    2.3    3.4    5.1    6.2    8.0   11.3
Spencer               6.5    7.0   11.0   14.1   17.3   19.9   20.9
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette             6.6    7.3    8.9   10.4   12.4   17.5   22.4

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Shelbyville           5.2    5.0    5.0    4.9    4.8    4.7    4.7
:Driftwood River
Edinburgh             2.8    2.5    2.4    2.3    2.1    2.0    1.9
:Eagle Creek
Zionsville            1.7    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.4    1.3
:East Fork White River
Rivervale             6.4    6.1    5.5    4.8    4.4    4.1    4.1
Bedford               4.3    3.8    3.1    2.7    2.4    2.2    2.1
Seymour               4.2    3.8    3.4    3.0    2.7    2.5    2.4
Shoals                4.6    4.3    4.0    3.6    3.3    3.0    2.9
Williams              2.3    2.1    1.8    1.5    1.2    0.8    0.7
:Eel River
Bowling Green         5.6    5.2    4.9    4.4    4.3    4.0    3.9
:Flatrock River
Columbus              3.8    3.6    3.4    3.3    3.1    3.0    3.0
:Muscatatuck River
Vernon                2.7    2.7    2.6    2.5    2.4    2.3    2.3
:Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville        3.5    3.5    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1    3.1
:Tippecanoe River
Delphi                2.9    2.8    2.7    2.5    2.5    2.3    2.2
:Wabash River
Covington             6.4    6.1    5.8    5.4    5.1    4.6    4.3
Hutsonville Legac     7.1    6.6    6.0    5.4    5.0    4.7    4.4
Lafayette             3.2    2.9    2.7    2.5    2.2    1.9    1.6
Mount Carmel          6.9    6.0    5.0    4.2    3.6    3.2    3.2
Montezuma             5.3    5.0    4.7    4.4    4.1    3.8    3.6
Riverton              5.4    4.9    4.3    3.7    3.3    2.9    2.6
Terre Haute           6.1    5.8    5.2    4.7    4.3    3.9    3.6
Vincennes             5.0    4.7    4.2    3.6    3.3    3.0    2.7
:White River
Anderson              4.3    4.2    4.2    4.1    4.0    3.9    3.8
Eagle Valley Powe   594.7  594.6  594.5  594.3  594.2  594.1  594.1
Elliston              8.4    7.6    7.0    6.3    5.8    5.3    4.2
Edwardsport           6.3    5.4    4.9    4.5    4.2    3.9    3.2
Hazleton              6.2    5.5    4.6    3.6    2.9    2.4    2.1
Indianapolis          4.1    3.9    3.8    3.6    3.5    3.3    3.2
Muncie                4.2    4.2    4.2    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1
Noblesville           4.3    4.1    4.1    4.0    3.9    3.8    3.7
Nora                  2.7    2.5    2.4    2.1    2.0    1.8    1.7
Newberry              3.4    2.9    2.5    2.1    2.0    1.8    1.6
Petersburg            5.7    5.1    4.3    3.6    3.0    2.6    2.4
Ravenswood            0.3    0.2    0.2    0.2    0.1    0.1    0.1
Spencer               2.9    2.5    2.2    1.9    1.6    1.4    1.2
:Wildcat Creek
Lafayette             3.3    3.2    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.7

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service, which will soon be transitioning to National Water
Prediction Services.

Visit our web site weather.gov/ind for more weather and water
information. For a graphical version of this product visit
weather.gov/ind/SpringHydrologicOutlook.

This is the final outlook for 2024.

$$

CP


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