Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 241551

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Valid 241700Z - 251200Z


...Southern/Central High Plains...
A critical area has been introduced across parts of northeast New
Mexico and southeast Colorado. Despite some relaxation of surface
flow near the lee trough axis, terrain/downslope-enhanced mixing and
related momentum transfer should yield sufficient areas of sustained
south/southwesterly winds near 20-25 mph. Combined with RH values
near 15% and dry fuels, critical conditions appear probable here by

Elsewhere, no changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. See
below for more details.

..Picca.. 03/24/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/

An upper trough/low will progress from the eastern Pacific to the
West Coast today as a southern-stream shortwave trough moves from
northern Mexico to the Southwest and southern High Plains. Enhanced
mid-level southwesterly winds will persist over much of the
Southwest and central/southern High Plains through the period, with
a 50-70 kt jet at 500 mb overspreading parts of southern AZ/NM this
afternoon. A surface low initially over MO will weaken through the
day as a cold front stalls over the southern Plains. Weak lee
cyclogenesis should occur across parts of the southern/central High
Plains through this evening.

...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern/Central High
Beneath the mid-level jet described above, strong/gusty
southwesterly surface winds will occur from parts of southeastern AZ
into southern/central NM this afternoon. Sustained winds of 20-30
mph appear likely, with some higher gusts to 40 mph possible. A
modest increase in low-level moisture and mid-level cloudiness may
limit the degree of lowered RH values across parts of this region.
Some light precipitation may even occur this afternoon across parts
of far southeastern AZ into southern NM per latest short-term model
guidance. Therefore, the critical delineation remains confined to
locations across southeastern AZ and southern/central NM where
confidence is relatively greater that RH values will become
critically lowered into the 10-15% range for a few hours today.

Farther east across the southern/central High Plains, elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions are expected. Here,
sustained southerly to southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph will be
common in conjunction with RH values of 10-20%. The overlap of
sub-15% RH values with sustained winds in excess of 20 mph still
appears too limited to justify a critical area across any portion of
the High Plains.

...Please see for graphic product...

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