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FNUS22 KWNS 170659

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z


A shortwave trough will move eastward from the Southwest to the
southern High Plains through Sunday evening, with a belt of enhanced
(70-90+ kt) mid-level flow overspreading eastern NM into west TX and
the TX/OK Panhandles by Sunday afternoon. Large-scale lift preceding
this shortwave trough will promote the deepening of a surface low
over southeastern CO Sunday afternoon. A Pacific cold front
associated with the shortwave trough will sweep eastward across the
southern High Plains on Day 2/Sunday, likely reaching into
southeastern KS and far western OK into western north TX around
Sunday evening.

...Portions of the Southern/Central High Plains...
As the surface pressure gradient strengthens and enhanced mid-level
winds reach the surface with mixing of the boundary layer,
strong/gusty southwesterly to westerly winds of 20-35 mph will
develop on Day 2/Sunday across parts of the southern/central High
Plains. RH values should fall into the 10-15% range across much of
this region due to downslope warming/drying processes even though
temperatures will be reduced behind the cold front passage. Critical
conditions appear most likely from eastern NM into west TX, much of
the TX/OK Panhandles, far southeastern CO, and extreme southwestern
KS. Elevated conditions should occur across a broader portion of the
southern/central High Plains, with low-level moisture return across
much of OK and central TX generally limiting the eastward extent of
substantial fire-weather concerns.

Some uncertainty remains concerning how far east elevated/critical
conditions will develop on Day 2/Sunday across southwestern KS and
the eastern TX/OK Panhandles. This uncertainty stems mainly from
differing forecast positions of the cold front by late Sunday
afternoon/early evening. Have not made substantial changes to the
elevated and critical delineations across these areas for now, but
adjustments will likely be needed as models hopefully come into
better agreement on the cold front location in later forecast

..Gleason.. 03/17/2018

...Please see for graphic product...

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