Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 212016
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
416 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

...Light precipitation this evening and tonight...

.DISCUSSION...A low pressure passing to the south will provide
chances of light rain showers this evening and tonight. Rain
showers will end Tuesday morning as high pressure builds back into
the Great Lakes region. This high pressure will provide
precipitation free weather through at least Thursday evening.
Temperatures and humidity may reach critical thresholds Wednesday
and Thursday, although winds should remain below criteria. Next
chances of rain return Thursday night/Friday morning and will last
through the weekend and possibly into Monday. Thunderstorms may
also develop through the holiday weekend.



MIZ016-017-019-021>023-220830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
416 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70...except around 61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent...except 64-69 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (380).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 6 mph shifting to the west
                    around 3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 58-63 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent...except 51-56 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (450).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-220830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
416 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.15 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers.
Max Temperature.....63-68...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter...except 22 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (410).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent...except 50-55 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (680).
Mixing Height.......6700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-220830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
416 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.11 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers.
Max Temperature.....64-69...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (290).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the south around
                    3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 50-55 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent...except 61-66 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent drier...except 9 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (300).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 3 mph shifting to the west
                    around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-220830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
416 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain showers likely
                    until 2400, then chance of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (110).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.17 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Slight chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 54-59 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    north in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (280).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....75-80...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer...except 7 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent...except 53-58 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......23 percent drier...except 12 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (320).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 3 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-220830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
416 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers likely.
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (80).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.19 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
                    Chance of rain showers until 1200, then slight
                    chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (420).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........28-33 percent.
   24 HR Trend......27 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (530).
Mixing Height.......7300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.MEMORIAL DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

TL



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