Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 220832
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Furniace town...Maryland Forest Service
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
432 AM EDT Wed May 22 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure settles immediately off the coast today into
tonight. A light northeast wind this morning will become
southeast this afternoon. This area of high pressure then shifts
well off the Southeast coast Thursday into Thursday night as low
pressure passes north of the region.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (26000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................15 increasing to 30 in the late morning and
                    early afternoon, then decreasing to 19 late in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6   7   8   12  16  20  23  26  28
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............62  65  68  69  70  70  70  71  70
RH..............58  48  39  37  35  35  35  34  35
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.7   8   10  10  8   8   8   10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.8 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.12  13  12  10  8   6   5   5   5
LVORI...........2   2   1   1   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............15  28  34  32  26  21  18  16  17
Haines index....4   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11  19  26  26  23  19  16  15  15
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming south around 5
                    mph overnight.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (13000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................17 decreasing to 3.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........22  15  9   9   9   10  16  23  30  33  36  38
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
Temp............69  66  64  62  60  59  59  59  58  58  57  57
RH..............37  43  48  54  60  62  64  67  72  72  75  77
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   5   5   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.8   8   7   7   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.6   7   7   7   6   5   5   6   6   6   7   8
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4
ADI.............17  3   3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3   3   4
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13  10  5   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   2   2
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 18 mph shifting to the southwest 20
                    to 22 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (48500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................11 increasing to 46.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........48     67     69     62     46     50
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     20     20     10     10     10
Temp............58     63     71     77     79     80
RH..............77     72     57     50     50     51
20 ft wind......S 6    S 8    S 9    S 10   S 11   S 11
20 ft wind gust.8      13     14     16     17     17
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    1800   2500   2400   2600
Transport wind..S 10   S 16   S 18   S 20   S 22   SW 21
LVORI...........4      3      1      1      1      1
ADI.............7      17     32     44     47     47
Haines index....2      2      2      2      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2      4      28     44     47     48
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR

$$
Forecaster...ZIMMERMAN
Requested by...Gilbert Wagner
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1909733.0/AKQ
.DELDT 05/22/19
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL gilbert.wagner@maryland.gov



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