Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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099
FNUS71 KAKQ 181040
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Big Woods WMA BW15...VA DGIF
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
640 AM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on April 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
A warm front will push across the area today with seasonable temperatures.
A mainly dry cold front crosses the region on Thursday morning, with dry
and windy conditions likely to develop by afternoon. Minimum relative
humidity values are expected to range from 25 to 35 percent along with
winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Dry conditions will continue
on Friday, though winds will not be as strong as on Thursday and temperatures
will be cooler.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60 to 70 percent) this morning becoming
                    mostly sunny (30 to 40 percent) this afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......600-2400 ft AGL increasing to 2900-3700 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 14 mph increasing to around 16
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............79  78  73  69  65  61  54  47  39  32  17
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................41  45  48  52  58  61  65  67  69  71  72
RH..................73  70  60  52  42  42  41  42  42  41  41
20 FT wind dir......NE  NE  E   SE  SE  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd......3   3   3   3   3   3   4   5   5   5   6
20 FT wind gust.....5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  15  15
Mix hgt (kft).......0.7 0.6 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7
Transp wind dir.....NE  NE  E   E   SE  SE  S   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.....8   7   6   5   5   6   8   10  14  16  16
LVORI...............3   3   3   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1
ADI.................9   8   7   7   8   16  25  35  46  55  58
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....5   4   5   6   7   12  20  30  40  49  52

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......1700-2700 ft AGL decreasing to 300-700 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 13 mph shifting to the southwest
                    3 to 10 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............13  9   5   6   7   8   12  16  19  25  30  36
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................72  71  68  67  65  63  63  63  62  61  61  59
RH..................42  46  52  54  60  65  65  62  65  67  70  75
20 FT wind dir......SW  S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd......5   5   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.....15  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft).......2.7 1.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....S   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.....13  8   5   3   5   6   7   9   10  10  9   9
LVORI...............1   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.................39  4   2   2   2   4   5   6   7   7   6   6
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........4   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4   4   5   5
VRate kt-ft/1000....31  13  3   2   2   1   2   2   2   2   2   2

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Mixing height.......700-1500 ft AGL increasing to 5300-6200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph increasing to west 29 to
                    32 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............35     34     31     26     19     23
Weather cov.........
Weather type........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov............
Temp................59     60     64     67     68     69
RH..................75     69     58     45     33     27
20 ft wind..........SW 6   W 7    W 11   W 13   W 13   W 13
20 ft wind gust.....15     15     25     30     30     30
Mix hgt (ft)........700    1500   4000   5400   5600   6000
Transport wind......SW 10  SW 15  W 26   W 32   W 30   W 29
LVORI...............3      3      1      1      1      1
ADI.................7      25     74     102    96     96
Chc of pcpn (%).....0      10     10     10     10     10
Haines index........4      3      3      3      4      4
VRate kt-ft/1000....6      20     93     150    145    152

$$
Forecaster...RUSNAK
Requested by...Matt Kline
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1806920.0/AKQ
.EMAIL matt.kline@dgif.virginia.gov



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