Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FNUS71 KALY 221120
FWSALY

Spot Forecast for APB Region F Rx...APB
National Weather Service Albany NY
720 AM EDT Wed May 22 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at alb.stormreport@noaa.gov, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Minimum relative humidity values in the 30s this afternoon...

High pressure over the region will result in a pleasant dry day
with seasonal temperatures increasing to near 70 this afternoon
and light winds out of the north. Skies should remain mostly sunny
through the afternoon today. A low pressure system will move into the
region Thursday resulting in humid conditions with showers and thunderstorms
likely during the late afternoon into the evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Dewpoint............37.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 5 to 6 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......600-1700 ft AGL increasing to 4300-5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 14 mph shifting to the northwest 3
                    to 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (3000-46000 knot-ft) increasing to
                    fair to excellent (23300-64400 knot-ft) late in
                    the morning, then decreasing to fair (13000
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   4   4   5   9   14  19  20  22  23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............50  53  57  62  65  68  70  71  71  71
Dewpoint........35  36  36  37  37  37  37  38  38  39
RH..............56  52  45  39  35  32  30  30  30  31
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   6   6   5   5   4   4   3
20 FT wind gust.6   7   7   8   8   7   7   6   6   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.7 3.0 4.2 4.8 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.0 4.3
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW
Transp wind spd.6   10  14  17  16  14  10  8   6   3
Haines index....3   3   4   4   4   3   3   3   4   4
VRate kt-ft/10003   23  46  63  64  57  46  35  23  13

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Dewpoint............42 increasing to 45 early in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds.
Mixing height.......1500-3000 ft AGL decreasing to 0-300 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....North around 2 mph shifting to the southeast 3
                    to 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.03 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........25  26  28  39  43  48  55  63  70  73  75  78
Weather cov.....                                        SCH SCH
Weather type....                                        RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20
Temp............70  67  65  62  60  58  57  56  55  55  54  53
Dewpoint........40  40  41  42  43  43  43  43  43  44  45  46
RH..............33  37  41  48  53  57  59  62  64  66  71  77
20 FT wind dir..NE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
20 FT wind gust.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   6
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.N   E   SE  SE  SE  S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.2   3   3   3   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
VRate kt-ft/10007   3   1   0   0   1   1   1   1   0   0   1

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the morning. Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the afternoon, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Dewpoint............48 increasing to 58.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph
                    late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......200-1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (2000-27300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.07 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........77  77  76  76  75  75  76  76  77  79  80  82
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH         SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW          RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                    CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  10  10  20  20  30  30  40
Temp............53  55  57  60  63  66  68  69  70  72  72  72
Dewpoint........47  47  48  49  50  52  54  56  57  58  59  59
RH..............80  74  72  67  62  61  61  63  63  61  64  64
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   6   7   8   8   9   9   10  11  11
20 FT wind gust.6   7   8   10  10  13  13  14  14  16  17  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   10  13  14  14  14  15  16  17  17  17  17
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/10002   5   8   12  17  21  25  27  27  22  15  8

$$
Forecaster...Cebulko
Requested by...Tyler Briggs
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1909744.0/ALY
.DELDT 05/22/19
.EMAIL tbriggs@albanypinebush.org



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