Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FNUS74 KAMA 222016
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast for Hay Fire...Canyon FD
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
316 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1600 CDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (806) 335-1421, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph will continue through sunset, and
will diminish to around 10 mph or less after sunset. Skies will be
mostly clear through the evening. Cloud cover is expected to
increase overnight. There may even be drizzle in the early morning
hours. There`s a chance of thunderstorms in the morning to early
afternoon.

Weber


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 16 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......9000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 30 to 33 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (234000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      4 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10
LAL.............1
Temp............84
RH..............14
20 ft wind......SW 16
20 ft wind gust.22
Mix hgt (kft)...9.0
Transp wind dir.S
Transp wind spd.30
Haines index....5
VRate kt-ft/1000234

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0400, then 1-8 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 17 mph decreasing to 7 to 10
                    mph in the late evening and overnight. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......8500 ft AGL decreasing to 0-500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 33 to 35 mph decreasing to 16 to 25 mph
                    early in the evening, then decreasing to 7 to
                    16 mph in the late evening and early morning
                    increasing to 20 to 22 mph early in the
                    morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (246500 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    to good (0-40900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY
Weather cov.....                                   S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                                   S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     10     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      2
Temp............85     77     65     59     58     57
RH..............14     18     29     40     53     79
20 ft wind......SW 17  S 14   S 7    S 8    S 9    S 9
20 ft wind gust.23     18     8      9      11     11
Mix hgt (kft)...8.5    5.5    0.1    0.1    0.5    0.5
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.35     25     8      9      16     22
Haines index....5      5      5      5      4      4
VRate kt-ft/1000257    122    0      0      7      10

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning,
                    then chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 0700, then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 17 mph increasing to around
                    20 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......0-1500 ft AGL increasing to 9500-10000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 22 mph increasing to 23 to 31 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (0-36400 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (228000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).20     50     50     50     40     40
LAL.............2      4      4      4      4      4
Temp............57     61     69     75     79     83
RH..............96     95     79     58     45     35
20 ft wind......S 10   S 12   S 14   S 14   S 15   S 20
20 ft wind gust.14     14     18     18     21     26
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5    1.5    4.0    4.5    6.5    9.5
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.15     14     20     21     23     28
Haines index....4      3      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/10007      18     68     82     133    228

$$
Forecaster...Weber
Requested by...Capt. Vince Whitfill
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1909770.0/AMA
.DELDT 05/22/19


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