Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FNUS74 KAMA 201752
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast for Armstrong...Texas A&M Forest Service
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1252 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1300 CDT on August 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (806) 335-1421, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds will gradually shift from southwesterly to southerly with speeds
of 15 knots sustained with occasional gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Isolated
thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon into the evening. Any storm
could produce gusty and erratic outflow winds along with brief heavy rain,
small hail and cloud to ground lightning. The lightning could produce
additional fire starts.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1600, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 100.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 14 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......9000-10500 ft AGL increasing to 12000-13000 ft
                    AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (99000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....              ISOLTD
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     20
LAL.............1      1      2
Temp............96     99     98
RH..............24     21     22
20 ft wind......SW 13  S 13   S 14
20 ft wind gust.16     16     19
Mix hgt (kft)...9.0    12     12
Transp wind dir.S      S      S
Transp wind spd.13     10     12
Haines index....3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/100099     108    123

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 0100, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 71.
Max humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 14 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......10500-11500 ft AGL decreasing to 0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (87100 knot-ft) decreasing to poor to
                    good (0-39300 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     20     20     10     10
LAL.............2      2      2      2      1      1
Temp............97     89     82     78     76     73
RH..............22     31     44     50     54     61
20 ft wind......S 14   S 14   SE 13  S 13   S 12   S 9
20 ft wind gust.19     18     16     16     14     11
Mix hgt (kft)...12     7.0    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
Transp wind dir.S      S      SE     S      S      S
Transp wind spd.14     14     12     10     9      7
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/1000137    87     0      0      0      0

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 96.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......0-1500 ft AGL increasing to 12000-13000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph increasing to 13 to 20
                    mph late in the morning, then shifting to the
                    south 7 to 13 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (0-42500 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (131800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............72     72     82     90     94     96
RH..............65     66     48     33     27     25
20 ft wind......S 6    S 6    SW 9   S 9    S 9    S 10
20 ft wind gust.8      7      11     11     11     14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1    1.0    2.5    7.5    11     13
Transp wind dir.SW     SW     SW     SW     S      S
Transp wind spd.5      10     20     13     7      9
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/10000      9      43     80     67     104

$$
Forecaster...Ward
Requested by...Belinda Jackson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1914055.1/AMA
.DELDT 08/20/19


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