Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 211230
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for canoer's Monument...USFS-HMF
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
830 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will make for quiet weather through
much of tonight. Light winds through mid morning will become light
northeast then eventually light east this afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........57 at ignition...Max 63.
RH..................45 percent at ignition...Min 31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northeast at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise East winds around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4800-6200
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 12 mph.
Vent rate...........Excellent /600 at ignition. Max...excellent
                    /600/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........10  12  13  14  15  15  16
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............57  60  61  61  62  63  62
RH..............45  37  33  32  31  31  33
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...5.5 6.1 6.2 5.9 5.8 5.5 4.8
Transp wind dir.N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E
Transp wind spd.12  10  8   7   6   5   5
Haines index....5   5   4   4   4   5   5
VRate/100.......6   6   5   4   3   3   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
Temperature.........Min 40.
RH..................Max 92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming east 5 to 6 mph
                    after midnight.
Mixing height.......2400-3700 ft AGL decreasing to 100-1300 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 15 mph increasing to southeast 17 to
                    25 mph after midnight.
Vent rate...........Poor to fair (0-200).
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........21  27  32  34  36  38  47  56  65  72  79  85
Weather cov.....                                            SCH
Weather type....                                            RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............61  58  56  53  50  48  46  45  44  42  40  40
RH..............35  39  42  48  54  60  65  70  73  79  89  89
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   5   5   4   3   3   3   4   5   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  8   8   7   7   8   10  10  11  12  13
Mix hgt (kft)...3.7 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.6   7   8   9   10  13  15  17  20  22  24  25
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4
VRate/100.......2   2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

$$
Forecaster...Andy Sullivan
Requested by...Brian Stearns
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1909689.0/APX
.DELDT 05/21/19


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