Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FNUS71 KBOX 220854
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for Mazar Property...Northeast Forest and Fire Management, LLC
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
454 AM EDT Wed May 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Expect sunny and dry conditions today. Gusty north to northeast
winds early this morning, up to around 20 mph, will become
northeast at about 5 to 10 mph by early afternoon.

Dry conditions should continue through most of tonight, though
there may be an isolated shower or two that may pass across the
island around 6 AM to 8 AM on Thursday.

Conditions should remain dry through most of the day Thursday, but
clouds will increase as a cold front approaches. A few showers may
move into the Vineyard by around 6 PM.

The minimum relative humidity today will be from 35 to 40 percent,
then 55 to 60 percent on Thursday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Dewpoint............38.
Max apparent temp...63.
Surface winds.......Northeast winds 9 to 16 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 9 to 16 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1200-2600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 18 to 26 mph becoming east 7 to 15 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to excellent (11600-60600 knot-ft)
                    decreasing to poor (7400 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................49 increasing to 64 early in the morning, then
                    increasing to 75 early decreasing to 62
                    decreasing to 46 decreasing to 28 early in the
                    afternoon decreasing to 15.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   4   6   9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............53  55  58  59  60  60  61  62  63  63  63  62
Dewpoint........38  38  37  37  38  38  38  39  39  39  40  40
RH..............57  53  45  44  44  44  42  43  41  41  43  44
Heat index (F)..53  55  58  59  60  60  61  62  63  63  63  62
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  SE
20 FT wind spd..13  14  16  16  15  14  12  9   12  10  10  8
20 FT wind gust.25  25  25  24  23  22  21  18  16  14  13  10
Surface wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  SE
Surface wnd spd.13  14  16  16  15  14  12  9   12  10  10  8
Surface wnd gst.25  25  25  24  23  22  21  18  16  14  13  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  E   E
Transp wind spd.25  25  26  24  23  21  18  15  13  10  9   7
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2
ADI.............49  64  79  70  66  58  50  42  32  24  18  11
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/100032  46  61  55  49  44  36  29  23  17  12  7
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........74 percent.
Dewpoint............42.
Max apparent temp...59.
Surface winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming southwest 5 to 6
                    mph early in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming southwest 5 to 6
                    mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......200-900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1800 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 10.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........7   6   4   4   4   4   7   10  13  20  27  34
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............59  56  53  52  51  51  51  51  51  51  51  51
Dewpoint........41  42  43  43  43  43  43  43  43  43  43  43
RH..............51  59  69  71  74  74  74  74  74  74  74  74
Heat index (F)..59  56  53  52  51  51  51  51  51  51  51  51
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   6   6   5   5   3   3   3   3   5   5   6
20 FT wind gust.9   10  7   6   6   5   5   5   5   6   6   7
Surface wnd dir.S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Surface wnd spd.7   6   6   5   5   3   3   3   3   5   5   6
Surface wnd gst.9   10  7   6   6   5   5   5   5   6   6   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.SE  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.8   8   9   9   10  10  10  10  10  10  12  12
LVORI...........2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............10  8   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/10006   4   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  14  12  11  11  10

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Dewpoint............46 increasing to 49 late in the afternoon.
Max apparent temp...59.
Surface winds.......Southwest winds 7 to 16 mph shifting to the
                    south around 17 mph late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 16 mph shifting to the
                    south around 17 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......200-400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3100 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................16.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......10 decreasing to 9.0 early in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 8.0 early decreasing to 7.0 late
                    in the morning increasing to 8.0 decreasing to
                    6.0 early decreasing to 5.0 decreasing to 4.0
                    late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........43     62     71     73     69     68
Weather cov.....       S CHC
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............52     55     57     58     59     59
Dewpoint........44     46     47     47     48     49
RH..............74     72     69     67     67     69
Heat index (F)..52     55     57     58     59     59
20 ft wind......S 7    S 9    SW 13  SW 16  S 17   S 17
20 ft wind gust.8      10     17     21     18     22
Surface wind....S 7    S 9    SW 13  SW 16  S 17   S 17
Surface wnd gst.8      10     17     21     18     22
Mix hgt (ft)....300    400    400    400    300    300
Transport wind..SW 13  SW 15  SW 17  SW 18  SW 17  S 17
LVORI...........3      3      3      3      3      3
ADI.............13     11     13     20     19     19
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/10003      5      6      6      5      4
Ceiling (kft)...10     8.0    8.0    6.0    5.0    5.0

$$
Forecaster...EVT
Requested by...Joel R. Carlson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1909742.0/BOX
.DELDT 05/22/19
.EMAIL joelcarlson@ne-ffm.com



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