Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 201957
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Spruce Run Prescribed Fire...DCNR Bureau of Forestry
National Weather Service State College PA
357 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 EDT on April 20.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...

Expect sunny and dry weather with diminishing wind this evening.
High pressure building into the area will supply fair and dry
conditions through the weekend with relatively light winds. Afternoon
RH`s will get into the 30s both Sat and Sun. The next chance
for rain will be Tuesday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 13 mph with gusts up to
                    25 mph.
Mixing height.......5400-5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 20 mph.
Haines Index........4...or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1
Temp............50  49
RH..............33  34
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  10
20 FT wind gust.25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...5.5 5.4
Transp wind dir.NW  NW
Transp wind spd.20  20
Haines index....4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 30.
Max humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph with gusts up to 20
                    mph until early morning, becoming light and
                    variable.
Mixing height.......3500-5100 ft AGL, decreasing to 100-500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 20 mph, becoming west 2 to 10
                    mph late in the evening.
Haines Index........4 to 5...or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........5   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   6   10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............48  46  45  43  40  38  37  35  34  33  32  31
RH..............35  40  43  47  52  57  56  61  64  69  72  75
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  10  8   7   6   6   6   5   4   3   3   2
20 FT wind gust.20  20  15  15  10  10  10      5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...5.1 4.6 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  W
Transp wind spd.20  20  13  12  12  10  8   7   5   3   2   2
Haines index....4   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming northwest
                    around 5 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......400-2300 ft AGL, increasing to 5300-5600 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 3 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5...or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........15  21  26  28  30  32  35  38  41  44  48  51
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............30  32  33  38  42  46  49  50  52  53  54  53
RH..............78  72  69  57  48  42  36  34  32  32  31  33
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.5 4.1 4.7 5.3 5.6 5.3
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.3   5   5   6   7   7   7   8   8   8   9   8
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5

$$
Forecaster...Fitzgerald
Requested by...Adam Kling
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807206.0/CTP
.EMAIL adkling@pa.gov



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