Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 250337
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for S-130 Field Day...DCNR BOF
National Weather Service State College PA
1137 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 EDT on May 25.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...
A return to warmer temperatures, higher humidity and several
bouts of showers and thunderstorms will occur over the upcoming
holiday weekend. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong to
severe with localized gusty winds and hail both afternoons.

Memorial Day itself should be mainly dry with comfortable
humidity. Morning sunshine will be followed by thickening
afternoon clouds and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the day across the western third of the state.


.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms and rain showers early in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........39  45  50  56  62  65  69  72  73  75  77
Weather cov.....                            CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            CHC CHC CHC CHC
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   2   2   3   3   3   3
Temp............54  55  58  60  63  64  66  68  70  71  70
RH..............90  86  80  75  70  67  65  61  57  57  59
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   7   8   10  10  10  10  11  11
Haines index....3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until early morning. Chance of
                    showers through the night. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after midnight.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1900, then No Tstms until
                    2100, then 1-8 strikes until 2200, then 16-25
                    strikes until 0100, then 1-8 strikes until
                    0200, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms until early morning. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
Haines Index........2 to 3 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........79  81  79  78  76  75  78  81  84  83  81  79
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
LAL.............2   1   1   2   4   5   4   2   1   1   1   1
Temp............70  69  68  66  65  63  62  62  61  61  62  62
RH..............59  63  68  75  78  87  90  93  97  97  97  97
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W
20 FT wind spd..7   7   6   6   6   5   4   3   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.11  10  11  11  12  12  11  10  8   7   6   6
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. Chance of
                    showers through the day. Chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1200, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the morning. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........74  69  64  58  52  49  49  49  51  52  53  54
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   3   3   3   3
Temp............64  65  67  70  72  75  77  79  81  81  81  81
RH..............93  90  87  78  73  66  62  56  53  53  51  51
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.7   8   10  10  10  10  11  12  13  13  12  11
Haines index....3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/Gartner
Requested by...Jake Novitsky
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1909855.0/CTP
.DELDT 05/24/19
.EMAIL jnovitsky@pa.gov



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