Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 191830
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Rocky...Gila National Forest
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
1230 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1300 MDT on July 19.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Warm temperatures are expected today along with another round of
isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Black Range. Winds
will again be fairly light, with 20 ft winds from the northwest.
Min RH will dip to around 20% today and tomorrow with Good
ventilation rates.

High pressure aloft combined with marginal moisture will hinder
thunderstorm activity and limit it mainly to mountain zones over
the weekend. A backdoor cold front will arrive Sunday evening and
bring with it slightly cooler temperatures and additional
moisture. Thunderstorm activity looks to be more widespread Monday
and Tuesday, with higher rain chances.


.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........54     54     54     25     25     25
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     20     10     10     10
LAL.............3      3      3      1      1      1
Temp............78     75     69     66     64     63
RH..............31     37     45     50     52     52
20 ft wind......W 8    NW 7   N 6    NW 6   N 7    NW 8
20 ft wind gust.11     10     7      7      8      11
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........27     27     27     70     70     70
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     50     50     50
LAL.............2      2      2      5      5      5
Temp............62     70     79     84     81     80
RH..............52     38     27     24     28     29
20 ft wind......NW 9   NW 9   NW 8   N 6    NE 5   NE 7
20 ft wind gust.12     12     11     7      6      8
Haines index....3      3      3      4      3      3

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........56        56        47        47
Weather cov.....ISOLTD    ISOLTD    ISOLTD    ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD    ISOLTD    ISOLTD    ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).20        20        10        10
LAL.............3         3         2         2
Temp............80        71        68        65
RH..............28        36        40        45
20 FT wind......NW 9G12   NW 7G8    N 7G8     N 6G7
Haines index....3         3         4         4

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower
60s. Highs in the upper 70s. East winds around 6 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in
the mid 70s. East winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in
the upper 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...DENNHARDT
Requested by...Silver City Dispatch Center
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1912023.9/EPZ
.DELDT 07/19/19
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov



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