Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 191832
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Negrito RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
1232 PM MDT Sun May 19 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MDT on May 20.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy to windy conditions will be the norm for the next several
days as an upper low slowly moves out of the southwest and into
the Four Corners region.  Temperatures will be significantly
cooler tomorrow behind a front which will also bring a chance for
some showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures will start to rebound
starting Tuesday but remain below normal for this time of the year.
Relative humidities in the burn area look to remain above
critical thresholds, but winds will likely make criteria
several days this week with a second system moving in for
later in the week.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................4.
Max temperature.....Around 48.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 5 to 12 mph becoming west-southwest
                    15 to 22 mph with gusts to around 34
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL increasing to 4600 ft AGL early in
                    the morning, then increasing to 5500-6400 ft
                    AGL in the late morning and early afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 19 mph increasing to 29 to 30
                    mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (51700 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (152000 knot-ft) in the morning.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........46     46     46     76     76     76
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      30     30     30
LAL.............1      1      1      2      3      3
Temp............38     41     44     46     48     48
RH..............64     59     51     43     40     37
20 ft wind......SW 5   SW 8   SW 14  SW 18  SW 18  W 20
20 ft wind gust.13     19     25     26     30     33
Mix hgt (ft)....1400   4600   5300   5800   4500   4200
Transport wind..SW 16  SW 20  SW 27  SW 30  SW 29  SW 28
Haines index....2      2      2      3      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11     109    137    150    135    94
Ventrate Cat....POOR   VYGD   VYGD   EXNT   VYGD   GOOD

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 30.
Max humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 12 to 21 mph. Gusts up to 32 mph.
                    Winds decreasing to 5 to 10 mph after midnight.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........63     63     63     32     32     32
Weather cov.....S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     20     20     20     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............46     40     36     34     32     31
RH..............35     46     56     64     72     75
20 ft wind......W 21   W 16   W 10   W 8    W 7    W 6
20 ft wind gust.32     28     22     18     17     15
Haines index....3      3      3      2      2      2

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 13 to 21 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph increasing to 20 to 26 mph with
                    gusts to around 40 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-1400 ft AGL increasing to 5400-5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 43 to 44 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (38400 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (270200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........24        24        24        24
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............30        41        49        54
RH..............75        55        34        27
20 FT wind......SW 9      SW 14G19  SW 20G26  SW 24G35
Mix hgt (ft)....600       1400      4300      5400
Transport wind..W 17      W 25      W 37      SW 40
Haines index....2         2         2         2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8         38        128       197
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      VYGD      EXNT

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Michael Head
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1909597.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/19/19
.EMAIL michaelhead@fs.fed.us


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