Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FNUS73 KGRR 231350
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Loggerhead...MDNR
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
950 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Clouds will be thickening up during the burn as a low pressure
system nears from the south.  The atmosphere looks too dry to
support rain from this system until after dark.  The winds will
initially be from the east but they are forecasted to
veer to the southeast during the afternoon.  With some moisture
moving in...humidity levels are not expected to drop as low as
previous days...but still will fall into the 20 percent range.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Temperature.........63 at ignition...Max 70.
RH..................30 percent at ignition...Min 23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northeast at 9 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise East winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5400-5900
                    ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 9 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....200 /fair/ at ignition. Max...900 /excellent/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (EDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM
Sky (%).........20     29     43     60     79     86
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............63     68     70     69     65     59
RH..............30     23     24     30     40     60
20 ft wind......NE 9   E 9    E 10   E 9    SE 8   SE 10
20 ft wind gust.       11     12     10
Mix hgt (ft)....1900   4000   5700   5200   3000   1800
Haines index....5      5      4      3      4      3
Smoke Dispersal 200    500    900    700    200    200

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers overnight.
Temperature.........Min 50.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 11 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Sekelsky
Requested by...Osterland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807460.0/GRR
.EMAIL osterlandl@michigan.gov



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