Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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367
FNUS73 KGRR 181021
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for A Frame Rx...MI DNR
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
621 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on July 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected from roughly mid morning
through early afternoon, followed by clearing skies with hot and
humid conditions. Rising dew points will prevent RH`s from falling
much this afternoon as temperatures rise.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming mostly
                    sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms mid morning through early afternoon.
Temperature.........83 at ignition...Max 92.
RH..................71 percent at ignition...Min 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 9 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southwest winds 5 to 10
                    mph. Gusts up to 24 mph late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the morning.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1900 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 6 to 14 mph increasing to around 16
                    mph early in the afternoon, then shifting to
                    the north 17 to 20 mph early in the afternoon
                    shifting to the southeast around 21 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....300 /good/ at ignition. Max...300 /good/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM   9 PM
Sky (%).........95     82     84     21     29     42
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Temp............83     83     85     89     92     88
RH..............71     67     65     60     56     63
20 ft wind......SW 9   SW 10  SW 10  SW 10  SW 10  SW 9
20 ft wind gust.14     14     18     19     19     14
Mix hgt (ft)....1900   1000   400    700    600    400
Haines index....4      3      2      3      3      3
Smoke Dispersal 300    200    100    100    100    100

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Temperature.........Min 77.
RH..................Max 91 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph
                    early in the evening then 23 mph overnight.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....0-100 (poor).

$$
Forecaster...Meade
Requested by...Lee Osterland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1912368.0/GRR
.DELDT 07/18/19
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL osterlandl@michigan.gov



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