Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 160959
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for JWF Office Admin Site...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
459 AM CDT Thu May 16 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

Please contact our office at (501) 834-0308 and ask for the fire
weather forecaster if you have any questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

The category day for Garland County will be a 4 for today.

Warm and dry conditions will be seen for this Thursday...with
southwest winds remaining less than 10 mph. Dry weather will
persist into Friday...with rain chances returning for the weekend.



.REST OF TODAY...

Max temperature.....79 at ignition...Max 86.
Min humidity........56 percent at ignition...Min 0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 8 mph.
Stability class.....B.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds southwest at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southwest winds 7 to 8
                    mph.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Dispersion..........40.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 6406 ft MSL.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 5700 ft AGL.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............79  81  83  83  84  84  83
RH..............56  52  49  48  46  45  46
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.    8   8   10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.14  14  13  14  15  16  16
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  10  10  10  10

.TONIGHT...

Min temperature.....Min 65.
Max humidity........Max 86 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming light.
Stability class.....E.
20 Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Dispersion..........33 early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 to 6 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 3418 ft MSL.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2700 ft AGL.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............82  81  78  75  73  72  71  70  69  68  67  67
RH..............49  51  58  63  68  71  74  77  78  80  81  83
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   6   6   5   5   3   3   3   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.8           6       5   5   5   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.15  13  10  7   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   5
Chc of pcpn (%).10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.FRIDAY...

Max temperature.....Max 87.
Min humidity........Min 42 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Light winds becoming south 5 to 9 mph early in
                    the morning.
Stability class.....B.
20 Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south 5 to 9 mph early in
                    the morning.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Dispersion..........19 increasing to 59 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 7290 ft MSL.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 6600 ft AGL.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............66  67  70  73  76  78  80  82  83  84  85  83
RH..............84  86  79  72  63  57  52  48  46  44  42  44
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   3   5   5   7   7   8   9   9   9   8   8
20 FT wind gust.4   4       6       8   10  11  11  11  10  10
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   6   10  17  22  22  21  20  20  20  20  17
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

$$
Forecaster...W Gilmore
Requested by...Wyatt Palin
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1909390.0/LZK
.DELDT 05/16/19
.EMAIL Wyatt.palin@usda.gov



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