Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FNUS73 KMPX 151342
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Dennis Haaland WMA Burn...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
842 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on August 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly sunny becoming mostly cloudy after 3 PM. Shower and
thunderstorm chances increase after 3 PM. Temperatures warming
through the upper 70s with lowest humidity near 50 percent
after 3 PM. South to southwest wind 6 to 8 mph and erratic/gusty
near thunderstorms.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny then becoming cloudy. Chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon. Chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Rain
                    showers likely late in the afternoon. Chance of
                    precipitation 70 percent.
Temperature.........71 at ignition...Max 79.
RH..................68 percent at ignition...Min 52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 4 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds becoming
                    southwest 5 to 6 mph late in the morning. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4300-5300
                    ft AGL increasing to 4500-6400 ft AGL early in
                    the afternoon, then decreasing to 3200-3900 ft
                    AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 13 mph.
Mixing winds........Southwest 7 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /26000 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /44500 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 or low at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Temp............71  74  76  77  79  78  77  74
RH..............68  62  58  56  52  56  58  64
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW
20 FT wind spd..4   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   8   10  10  11  12
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 5.3 6.4 5.7 5.1 4.5 3.9 3.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   7   8   8   9   10  12  13
Mixing wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Mixing wind spd.7   7   8   8   9   10  12  13
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100026  32  45  40  41  40  39  36

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy then
                    becoming mostly clear. Rain showers with
                    thunderstorms likely in the evening. Chance of
                    precipitation 80 percent.
Temperature.........Min 60.
RH..................Max 97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light, then becoming west 5 to
                    6 mph late in the evening. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the evening.
Mixing height.......900-2600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 16 mph.
Mixing winds........West 13 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (10000-31200 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Temp............71     68     65     64     62     61
RH..............73     78     87     90     93     93
20 ft wind......SW 5   SW 5   SW 4   W 6    W 6    W 6
20 ft wind gust.12     10     10     7      7      8
Mix hgt (ft)....2600   2200   1800   1400   1200   1000
Transport wind..SW 14  SW 15  W 16   W 16   W 15   W 14
Mixing wind.....SW 14  SW 15  W 16   W 16   W 15   W 14
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100031     28     25     19     15     12

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Temperature.........Max 83.
RH..................Min 46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......800-2000 ft AGL increasing to 8100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 14 mph.
Mixing winds........West 12 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (9000-56700 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (68800 knot-ft) late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR or very low to or moderate.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Temp............61     68     75     80     82     83
RH..............97     81     66     52     47     47
20 ft wind......W 5    W 6    W 6    W 6    W 6    W 5
20 ft wind gust.6      10     10     10     10     7
Mix hgt (ft)....800    3200   5700   8100   8100   8100
Transport wind..W 13   W 12   W 12   W 13   W 13   W 13
Mixing wind.....W 13   W 12   W 12   W 13   W 13   W 13
Haines index....4      4      3      3      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/10009      32     57     89     89     89

$$
Forecaster...WFO MPX
Requested by...Evan Duchow
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1913844.0/MPX
.EMAIL evan.duchow@state.mn.us


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