Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FNUS73 KMQT 140943
FWSMQT

Spot Forecast for White Spruce RX Unit 12...USFS
National Weather Service Marquette MI
543 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on July 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure over the area early this morning will
drift southeast through the day. This will result in light westerly
winds at around 5 mph this morning becoming slightly stronger from
the southwest at around 10 mph this afternoon. A lake breeze will
develop off Whitefish Bay today, but it is not expected to reach the
burn site. Under sunny skies, temperatures will quickly rise from 64
at ignition time to around 80 by early afternoon. Minimum relative
humidity this afternoon will be around 37 percent. Relative humidity
recovery tonight will be toward 80 percent. Any showers and
thunderstorms are likely to hold off until Monday morning.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........64 at ignition...Max 82.
RH..................65 percent at ignition...Min 37 percent.
33-foot winds.......Winds west at 5 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds up to 5 mph increasing to southwest
                    5 to 10 mph by late morning.
20-foot winds.......West winds up to 4 mph increasing to southwest
                    up to 8 mph this afternoon.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1600-3400
                    ft AGL increasing to 5000-6700 ft AGL by late
                    morning, then decreasing to 3100-4500 ft AGL
                    late.
Ventilation index...Poor (98) at ignition. Max...good (446).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky (%).........9   5   2   3   4   6   5   5   4   5   5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............64  70  75  78  80  81  81  81  81  79  77
RH..............65  55  47  42  39  37  37  37  37  39  41
33 ft wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
33 ft wind spd..5   5   7   7   7   9   9   9   10  10  10
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind spd..4   4   6   6   6   7   7   7   8   8   8
Wind gust.......5   5               10  10  10  11  11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 3.4 5.0 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.4 5.7 4.5 3.1
Haines index....3   3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3   3   4
VIndx kt-ft/100.98  171 251 299 327 403 404 446 396 357 275

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 59.
RH..................Max 79 percent.
33-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph.
20-foot winds.......South winds up to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......100-1800 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor (18-181).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (EDT)      8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM
Sky (%).........6   13  20  27  29  31  32  34  35  37  42  47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............73  70  66  63  61  60  60  59  59  59  61  63
RH..............45  51  59  66  70  72  73  76  78  78  79  77
33 ft wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
33 ft wind spd..9   9   9   7   7   7   6   6   6   8   8   8
20 ft wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   6   6   6   5   5   5   6   6   6
Wind gust.......8   8   8               6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3
VIndx kt-ft/100.181 112 57  30  18  27  43  40  37  50  67  61

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers through
                    late afternoon. A chance of thunderstorms. Rain
                    showers likely early in the evening. Chance of
                    precipitation 60 percent.
LAL.................2 until 1800, then 3.
Temperature.........Max 82.
RH..................Min 58 percent.
33-foot winds.......Southwest winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    by late morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    by late morning.
Mixing height.......1200-3100 ft AGL increasing to 3100-4000 ft AGL
                    by mid afternoon, then decreasing to 1900 ft
                    AGL early in the evening.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (48-499) increasing to good to
                    excellent (309-602) late.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.09 inches.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
Sky (%).........52     66     72     66     74     74
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE
LAL.............2      2      2      2      2      3
Temp............66     74     78     78     81     80
RH..............73     62     59     65     62     64
33 ft wind......S 11   S 11   S 12   S 13   S 13   SW 13
20 ft wind......S 9    S 9    S 10   S 10   S 10   SW 10
Wind gust.......13     13     16     14     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....1200   2500   3100   3100   4000   3100
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VIndx kt-ft/100.48     197    403    403    598    504

$$
Forecaster...Rolfson
Requested by...Patty Carrick
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1911884.2/MQT
.DELDT 07/14/19


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