Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FNUS73 KMQT 150937
FWSMQT

Spot Forecast for Mitchell Creek Rx...MI DNR
National Weather Service Marquette MI
537 AM EDT Wed May 15 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will build into the Upper Great Lakes
today, leading to a mostly sunny, warm and drying day at the burn
site. As temperatures rise into the upper 60s and the mixed layer
builds today, expect drier air to mix down, resulting in relative
humidity bottoming out at around 29 percent at 4 PM this afternoon.
With the high pressure settling over Lake Superior this afternoon,
north winds generally near 10 mph will prevail at the burn site
through the day. A cold front approaching the Upper Great Lakes
tonight will move across the burn site on Thursday. Showers
associated with the front will be possible late tonight and
especially Thursday morning. Around one-tenth of an inch of rainfall
is expected.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Temperature.........Max 69.
RH..................Min 29 percent.
33-foot winds.......North winds 6 to 11 mph decreasing to 5 to 10
                    mph late.
20-foot winds.......North winds 5 to 9 mph decreasing to up to 8
                    mph late.
Mixing height.......4500-6200 ft AGL increasing to 5800-7500 ft AGL
                    by mid afternoon, then decreasing to 5100 ft
                    AGL early in the evening.
Ventilation index...Good to excellent (409-810) decreasing to good
                    (306) early in the evening.
Haines Index........2 to 5 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Sky (%).........29  31  32  27  22  17  16  16
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............65  66  67  68  68  67  66  63
RH..............41  37  34  32  30  29  31  35
33 ft wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
33 ft wind spd..11  11  11  11  11  10  10  10
20 ft wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 ft wind spd..9   9   9   9   9   8   8   8
Wind gust.......12  12  11  11  11  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.5 6.2 7.4 7.5 7.1 6.4 5.8 5.1
Haines index....5   4   3   3   3   3   3   2
VIndx kt-ft/100.584 742 810 755 641 512 409 306

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear then becoming cloudy. A chance of
                    rain showers late. Chance of showers 40
                    percent.
Temperature.........Min 39.
RH..................Max 95 percent.
33-foot winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming calm, then becoming southeast 5 to 7
                    mph late.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds up to 6 mph early in the
                    evening becoming calm, then becoming southeast
                    up to 6 mph late.
Mixing height.......2800-4200 ft AGL decreasing to 0-1300 ft AGL by
                    late evening.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (0-208).
Haines Index........2 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.01 inches.

TIME (EDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........15     22     42     76     77     83
Weather cov.....                                   CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............60     50     42     40     39     39
RH..............39     57     75     84     86     91
33 ft wind......NE 7   NE 7   E 4    SE 4   SE 4   SE 7
20 ft wind......NE 6   NE 6   E 3    SE 3   SE 3   SE 6
Wind gust.......8      8             6      6      10
Mix hgt (ft)....4200   1300   BLW100 300    300    200
Haines index....2      2      2      3      4      3
VIndx kt-ft/100.208    67     0      8      23     30

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers likely early, then
                    a chance of rain showers. Chance of
                    showers 60 percent.
Temperature.........Max 67.
RH..................Min 58 percent.
33-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 6 to 11 mph late.
20-foot winds.......South winds up to 8 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 5 to 9 mph late.
Rainfall amount.....0.12 inches.

TIME (EDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........94     95     92     86     78     72
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............41     47     56     64     67     67
RH..............93     91     79     67     60     58
33 ft wind......S 10   S 10   S 11   SW 10  SW 10  NW 11
20 ft wind......S 8    S 8    S 9    SW 8   SW 8   NW 9
Wind gust.......12     12     12     10     10     13

$$
Forecaster...Rolfson
Requested by...Keith Murphy
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1909209.0/MQT
.DELDT 05/15/19


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