Suppression Forecast
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FNUS71 KPBZ 120806
FWSPBZ

Spot Forecast for SGL 262 Clark Gate...PA GAME COMMISSION
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
406 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0500 EDT on August 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (412) 262-1485, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.Discussion...

Dry weather and warmer temperatures are expected today. Wind and RH
should not provide an impediment to the burn. Moisture will
then increase ahead of a slow-moving cold front, bringing showers and
thunderstorms back to our area later tonight and Tuesday. Some heavy
rainfall totals are possible, and a few storms may be strong.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 9 mph increasing to around 12
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........45  47  49  47  45  44  42  40  38  41  44  47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............59  60  62  67  71  75  77  79  80  81  82  82
RH..............87  86  83  73  65  59  57  53  47  48  48  44
20 FT wind dir..S   SE  SE  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   3   3   4   4   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.4               4   4   6   6   7   8   10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 2.1 3.1 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.2 3.9
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.2   2   2   5   6   8   8   8   8   9   12  12
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms overnight. Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0100, then 1-8 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 66.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 1 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........53  60  66  65  63  62  67  73  78  81  84  88
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  30  30  40
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............80  78  76  74  71  69  68  67  67  67  67  67
RH..............48  53  58  67  73  77  80  81  81  82  83  84
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   4   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.8   6   6   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
Transp wind spd.9   6   2   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Showers and chance of
                    thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1200, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 8 mph early in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the morning. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    late in the morning, then gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 0 to 7 mph increasing to 10 to 18 mph
                    late in the morning, then shifting to the west
                    13 to 21 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........91  95  98  99  99  100 98  97  96  95  94  93
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY LKY DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50  50  60  70  80  80  70  70  70  60  60  50
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............66  66  66  67  69  72  73  75  76  77  77  77
RH..............88  92  94  92  89  85  83  81  80  78  77  78
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   SW  SW  S   SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   3   4   4   4   4   4   7   7   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.5   5   6   6   6   10  10  11  11  11  10  8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.9 2.6 3.0
Transp wind dir.SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.1   0   0   2   7   10  15  18  21  20  16  13
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...CL
Requested by...Josh Fuqua
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1913672.0/PBZ
.DELDT 08/12/19
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL jofuqua@pa.gov


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