Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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039
FNUS71 KRNK 221303
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Staunton River State Park unit 39...VA DCR State Parks
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
903 AM EDT Wed May 22 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure wedge will limit mixing today, making for a lower mixing
height than would be expected in late May and also limiting wind speeds
and gusts. Expect the result will be only fair smoke dispersion.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light east to southeast around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 8 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (13000 mph-ft).
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................24 increasing to 28 in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8   13  17  22  21  39  47  33
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............67  70  72  73  75  76  77  77
RH..............56  52  50  48  47  46  47  48
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..4   5   5   4   4   4   4   5
20 FT wind gust.7   7   7   7   6   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7
Mixng wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE
Mixng wind spd..8   9   9   8   8   8   8   8
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............19  28  29  27  25  26  28  30
Haines index....2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3
VRate mph-ft/1K.15  25  27  26  25  26  29  31

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after 3
                    am.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 5 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18800 mph-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (900 mph-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................24 decreasing to 4.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........32     56     49     48     30     34
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      10     10     10     10     10
Temp............77     72     66     64     62     61
RH..............49     59     69     71     74     81
20 ft wind......SE 4   SE 4   SE 4   S 4    S 4    S 5
20 ft wind gust.7      6      6      6      6      7
Mix hgt (ft)....2600   300    300    300    300    300
Mixing wind......SE 8   SE 8   SE 5   S 5    S 5    S 5
LVORI...........2      3      3      3      3      5
ADI.............24     5      3      3      2      2
Haines index....3      3      3      3      2      2
VRate mph-ft/1K.22     3      1      1      1      1

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 20 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 6 to 15 mph increasing to 16 to 23
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2500 mph-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (55000 mph-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................7 increasing to 27 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 49 late in the morning increasing
                    to 60 early in the afternoon decreasing to 54
                    increasing to 59 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........39     49     49     40     19     19
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10     10     10     10     10     10
Temp............60     68     74     79     84     85
RH..............96     82     72     66     61     58
20 ft wind......S 5    SW 6   SW 7   SW 7   SW 7   SW 7
20 ft wind gust.7             10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....500    900    2000   2500   2500   3500
Mixing wind......S 6    SW 10  SW 20  SW 22  SW 17  SW 16
LVORI...........8      4      3      1      1      1
ADI.............3      10     48     64     49     58
Haines index....2      2      2      2      3      3
VRate mph-ft/1K.3      9      39     55     42     57

$$
Forecaster...Sporer
Requested by...Reed Stanley
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1909752.0/RNK
.DELDT 05/22/19
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26



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