Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FNUS76 KSTO 210406
FWSSTO

SPOT FORECAST for Tree Falling Operations...USFS
National Weather Service SACRAMENTO CA
906 PM PDT Sun May 20 2018

Forecast is based on incident time of 0900 PDT on May 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure center over the southern portion of CA will be
moving slowly towards Las Vegas during the forecast period. The air mass
will become unstable during the afternoons and into the evening resulting
in showers and thunderstorms over the southern Cascades. Counter-clockwise
flow around the low center will cause the showers/storms to move from the
northeast to the southwest. Most of the activity will weaken as it moves
to the west, thus any rainfall amounts at the burn site will be light.
Stronger storms over the higher elevations may result in an outflow boundary
causing gusty and erratic winds.

Best time to plan the burn is in the morning if possible. Post lookouts for
thunderstorms in the afternoon, and/or call the Weather Office for radar
updates if needed. Expect cumulus build-ups to begin by late morning and
continuing through the afternoon hours.

NOTE: Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.


.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers
                    in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....67-72.
Min humidity........42-47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Valley/lwr slopes..Northeast winds 4 to 8 mph.
 Ridgetop...........Northeast 9 to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......Rising to 7000-7500 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 13 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.06 inches.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and a
                    slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening,
                    then partly cloudy after midnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....45-50.
Max humidity........68-75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Valley/lwr slopes..North to northeast winds up to 8 mph in the evening,
                    becoming by morning.
 Ridgetop...........Northeast to east 10 to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......Lowering to 500-1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast to east 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.02 inches.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy with a chance of showers in the
                    morning, then mostly cloudy with showers likely
                    and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....65-70.
Min humidity........46-51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Valley/lwr slopes..East winds up to 6 mph in the morning becoming
                    northeast by late morning and northwest 4 to 8 mph
                    during the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........East 8 to 12 mph in the morning, becoming northeast
                    5 to 10 mph by late morning and then northwest 5 to 10 mph
                    during the afternoon.
Mixing height.......Rising to 6500-7000 ft AGL by midday then lowering to
                    4500-5000 ft AGL during the afternoon.
Transport winds.....East then northeast 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest
                    8 to 12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn amount.........0.25 to 0.35 inches.

$$
Forecaster...JM
Requested by...Jake FitzGerald
Type of request...OTHER
.TAG 1810297.0/STO
.EMAIL jakecfitzgerald@fs.fed.us



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