Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FNUS75 KTFX 160256
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Helmville 13...USFS - HLC - Lincoln RD
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
856 PM MDT Wed May 15 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2300 MDT on May 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Unsettled conditions are expected tonight and through the end of
the work week as a large upper level disturbance currently off of
the Pacific Coast moves inland and towards the Northern Rockies.
While the threat for thunderstorms continues to decrease this
evening, rain showers could produce gusty and erratic winds
through 0300 Thursday. These showers are then expected to push
north of the burn area after 0300 Thursday, providing a break from
precipitation chances until around Thursday afternoon when showers
and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop. Thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening could produce erratic and gusty
winds. Showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening are expected to
transition to more of a widespread rain Thursday night and
persist through the day on Friday. - Moldan

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain late in the evening, then chance
                    of rain overnight.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....43-48.
Max humidity........91-96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph with gusts to around 15
                    mph. Rain showers during the early evening hours
                    could produce erratic and gusty winds.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 15 to 20 mph.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain in the
                    morning, then rain showers likely and chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................3.
Max temperature.....62-67.
Min humidity........51-56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 10 mph, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph
                    in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 15 to 20 mph.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely and chance
                    of thunderstorms in the evening, then rain
                    likely overnight.
CWR.................40 percent.
LAL.................3.
Min temperature.....42-47.
Max humidity........84-89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph, with gusts of 20
                    to 25 mph during the evening hours. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 20 to 25 mph.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain.
CWR.................80 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....49-54.
Min humidity........69-74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 5 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Moldan
Requested by...Jerod Russell
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1909108.3/TFX
.DELDT 05/15/19
.EMAIL mthdc@fs.fed.us,jrussell@fs.fed.us


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