Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FNUS73 KUNR 161350
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Pinnacles Rx...NPS
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
750 AM MDT Thu May 16 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on May 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...As a cold front slides into the area today from north
to south, breezy northerly winds will become more easterly by late
this afternoon, and a cooling trend will begin. With highs today only
in the lower 70s, minimum relative humidity will fall to 45 percent
this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms should hold off until this
evening, around 7 or 8 PM.

There could be a break in precipitation Friday morning, but chances
will increase again in the afternoon. Cooler weather is expected, with
minimum relative humidity around 75 percent Friday. Cool and wet weather
will continue into the weekend.

Both today and Friday, there is a chance for thunderstorms to become
strong to severe, which would include erratic winds.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph, becoming easterly by late afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......4300 to 4800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    in the evening and overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East around 15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................40 percent.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1200 to 1700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 25 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the morning,
                    then rain showers likely and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast around 15 mph with gusts to around 20
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......900 to 1400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East around 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

$$
Forecaster...KP
Requested by...Lee Dueker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1909329.1/UNR
.DELDT 05/16/19
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL Lee_dueker@nps.gov


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