Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 170903

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Aug 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.


Low pressure at 1012 mb located a couple of hundred miles S of
the coast of Guatemala is supporting numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms within 150 nm in the NW semicircle,
along with gusty winds and heavy downpours across Central America
from Panama to Guatemala, and spreading NW into SE Mexico. This
low has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation during the
next couple of days as it moves W-NW around 10 kt while
paralleling the coastlines, and moisture associated with the low
will continue to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash
flooding. Winds and seas will also increase across the offshore
waters areas from El Salvador to offshore of Mexico the next
several days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more


A tropical wave axis near 83W extends southward from near the
Costa Rica/Panama border into the eastern Pacific, moving W at 10
to 15 kt. Limited deep convection is present near the wave on
the eastern Pacific side.

A tropical wave axis near 96W/97W extends southward from Oaxaca
Mexico into the eastern Pacific, moving W at around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection was noted N of 06N
between 93W and 98W.

A tropical wave axis is near 106W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 15N between
107W and 107W, with scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection from 15N to 17N between 99W and 106W.

A tropical wave axis is near 117W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from
08N to 12N between 115W and 124W.

A tropical wave axis is near 128W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 14N to
17N between 123W and 128W. Scattered moderate convection is from
08N to 10N between 128W and 130W. Low pressure may form in
association with this wave during the weekend or early next week
as it moves slowly westward.


The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to low pressure near
12N90W to 13N106W to 11N120W to 09N130W to 08N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N to 08N
between 87W and 90W, from 06N to 12N between 109W and 114W, and
also from 06N to 10N W of 134W.


Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the area of low pressure and associated heavy rainfall.

A broad high pressure ridge extends across the Baja California
offshore waters, bringing gentle to moderate NW winds to the
region. This ridge will generally remain in place through early
next week. The pressure gradient between this ridge and low
pressure over the western United States has led to stronger winds
north of the area, and these winds have generated swell that will
may propagate to northern parts of the waters offshore Baja
California Norte for the first part of the weekend. Seas at times
will build to around 7 ft. Low pressure trough extending down the
Baja California peninsula will support locally strong S and SE
winds over the northern Gulf through today, generating seas of
around 6 ft. The pressure gradient along the Pacific coast of
Baja California will tighten early next week, with NW winds
increasing to moderate to fresh.

For the remainder of waters offshore Mexico, generally gentle
winds will prevail through today.


Please read the Special Features section for more details about
the area of low pressure and associated heavy rainfall.

Winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will become offshore and pulse to
fresh Sun night, then moderate thereafter. Southerly swell of 5
to 7 ft impacting the Ecuador/Galapagos offshore waters will
decay through early next week.

Otherwise, mainly moderate winds will prevail into early next
week, along with seas of 4 to 6 feet.


Moderate to fresh winds in the wake of a tropical wave now W of
140W support seas of 6 to 8 ft from 15N to 20N W of 136W. These
seas will diminish during the next several hours as the wave
moves away from the area.

Across the remainder of the Pacific high seas area, moderate to
fresh winds prevail in the NW corner, with moderate winds or
less elsewhere. Winds will diminish for the second half of the
weekend into early next week as the pressure gradient slackens.
Northerly swell N of 27N will lead to seas of 8 to 9 ft to the W
of 125W through early Sun before decaying.

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