Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231549
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Apr 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends southwest from the Pacific coast
Colombia at 08N78W to 06N95W where scatterometer winds indicate
that an ITCZ develops and continues west-northwest to 08N120W,
then turns southwest to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm of 06N82W and
12.5N91W and 08N99W, and also within an area bounded by 15N112W
to 05.5N103W to 06N140W to 15N112W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast ridge will meander from 23N116W to
12N94W for the next several days with gentle to moderate
northwest winds, and 4 to 7 ft seas, across the open waters west
of the Baja Peninsula. The pressure gradient is forecast to
tighten on Wed resulting in moderate to fresh northwest flow
within about 60 nm of the west coast of the central Baja
Peninsula on Thu, and fresh to locally strong flow on Fri.

Gulf of California:  Light to gentle variable winds forecast this
week.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal flow
will continue this week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong northeast nocturnal
winds expected tonight and on Tue night, with seas building to
as high as 7 ft downstream near 11N88W. Moderate to locally
fresh nocturnal drainage flow expected to resume on Wed night.

Gulf of Panama: Gentle nocturnal flow forecast this week.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail
generally N of 09N, while light to gentle SW winds are forecast
S of 09N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1023 mb surface high is centered at 33N135W with a ridge
extending southeast to near 12N94W. Northerly swell in the form
of 7 to 9 ft seas currently observed from 29N to 32N between
120W and 132W, will subside to less than 8 ft overnight. Fresh
northeast trades, and 6 to 8 ft seas, are observed across the
tropical waters south of the ridge and north of the the ITCZ,
with little change forecast the remainder of this week.

The surface high will move north allowing a weak cold front to
move into the far northwest waters on Tue and quickly wash out. A
round of northwest swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will
accompany the front and then gradually subside through Wed.

Southerly swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, currently
observed between the equator and 03.4S will gradually subside
through Thu.

$$
Nelson


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