Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 240758
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
158 AM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 139 AM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

A classic New Mexico spring storm system rolls across
the state today. Northern and central NM will receive a three-tier
hazard serving today with winter impacts reaching the western and
northern mountains, and high winds and critical fire weather
conditions impacting areas along and east of the central mountain
chain. Peak gusts of 55 to 65 mph will be possible over the eastern
plains this afternoon, where blowing dust producing low visibility
will be possible. A second push of windy winter weather surges into
northeastern NM late tonight through Monday where winter travel
impacts will be favored from the Raton Pass through the eastern
slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Conditions begin to
improve Monday night with remnant valley rain and mountain snow
showers persisting most areas Tuesday. Sunnier and warmer conditions
arrive late Wednesday and last through the end of next work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight) Issued at 139 AM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

The 1am radar and satellite imagery showed a large area of rain and
snow showers advancing rapidly northeastward from AZ into northern
and western NM. Confidence is high today for a variety of weather
impacts across much of NM as a sharp Pacific cold front races east.
Areas along the Cont Divide will be impacted first by rain to snow
with a sharp wind shift and increasing winds between now and 10am. A
brief period of hazardous travel may occur along I-40 and U.S. 550
with low visibility and slick roadways. The focus then shifts to
central NM between sunrise and 12pm as the front punches east and
rain/snow develops along the central mt chain. The residence time
for this area of precip is shorter than the west given drier air is
moving in behind the front and shifting any accums onto west-facing
slopes of the high terrain. The transition toward very strong winds
takes place during this period as well and a period with gusts near
50 mph may occur in the RGV behind the front. There are no Wind
Advisories in effect for the ABQ and SAF metros so this area will be
watched closely for potential expansions this morning. The strongest
winds for this event will become widespread over eastern NM by early
this afternoon as a powerful 170kt speed max spreads east with an
unseasonably strong 541dm H5 low. Models are still in very good
agreement that a 979mb surface low will develop over southeast CO
and work with deep mixing to tap stronger winds aloft, which recent
guidance has finally trended higher at the 700mb level. Sustained
winds of 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 65 mph are likely, especially
for the Sacramento Mts, east-central, and southeast plains. Areas of
blowing dust are also likely however the airmass does not look very
unstable across southeast NM with cold air advection, so the overall
coverage may be more limited to localized source regions.

Winds are expected to gradually weaken this evening as the core of
the stronger winds shifts east and the surface low pulls away into
the Great Plains. Snow showers will continue over the northern and
western high terrain with additional accums mainly on the lighter
side. West-facing slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts may see some
heavier rates tonight with potential for accums to push 10" before
sunrise Monday. A backdoor cold front will also be moving southward
across northeast NM overnight with a second area of snow expanding
over that area. More details on this next round area found in the
"long-term" discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 139 AM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

The long term period begins Monday morning with the
second phase of an early Spring winter system shifting focus over
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and adjacent highlands between Raton
and Las Vegas. As the main 537dm H5 low exits over the Central Great
Plains, a backdoor cold front will surge southward from eastern CO
into northeastern NM. A sharp drop in temperatures and strong
northerly winds will follow behind the fropa, although wind speeds
are not forecast to be as strong as Sunday`s high wind event. The
combination of winds and snow over the Raton Pass and
Johnson/Bartlett Mesas alongside a slight upslope component into the
eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains will allow for
hazardous winter travel conditions in this area Monday morning. This
continues into Monday afternoon with temperatures in this area
struggling to reach above freezing, and H7 temperatures aloft
falling to -8C to -12C allowing for efficient snowfall production.
Twenty-four hour snow accumulations for these two areas will
approach 10 inches, perhaps higher in a few isolated spots. A Winter
Weather Advisory will be issued for this area starting late Sunday
evening and lasting through the day Monday. Snowfall could stretch
as far south as the I-40 corridor but to lesser intensities Monday,
while cold and windy northwesterly flow fills into the rest of the
forecast area. With daytime highs in the 40s and 50s most areas,
temperatures will be 15F to 20F below normal, except 25F to 30F
below normal behind the cold front in northeastern NM with highs in
the upper 20s to mid-to-upper 30s.

Precipitation tapers off most areas Monday night and Tuesday morning
as the frontal boundary loses its identity, but increases again with
the approach of one final shortwave trough Tuesday afternoon.
Showers of valley rain and mountain snow will favor much of western,
central and northern NM with lesser coverage reaching out over the
eastern plains Tuesday afternoon. Relatively light precipitation
amounts will still allow for minor winter travel impacts through the
high terrain. Conditions clear out through Wednesday morning as a
shortwave ridge begins to slide into western NM. This ridge squarely
crosses the forecast area Thursday allowing temperatures to rise 10F
to 15F over Wednesday`s forecast. This ridge gives way to increasing
southwesterly flow Friday that will keep the warming trend going,
placing forecast high temperatures back above climatological
normals. ABQ`s first 70F day of 2024 looks likely by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

A band of rain to snow will surge east tonight into western NM
with rapidly deteriorating weather conditions. Widespread MVFR
cigs/vsbys will develop with lcl IFR along and west of the Cont
Divide thru sunrise. A sharp wind shift from the west/southwest
with strengthening wind gusts of 30 to 40 kt will occur along the
front. Turbulence, icing, LLWS, and mt obscurations will become
widespread over western NM as indicated by recent AIRMETs. Rain
and snow showers will then focus over the northern and central mts
between sunrise and 12pm along with stronger winds, local MVFR,
and mt obscurations. An Airport Weather Warning may be needed for
the ABQ Sunport given strong wind gusts exceeding 35 kt along and
behind the frontal passage. The strongest winds will then focus
over eastern NM where gusts of 45 to 55 kt are likely to peak
between 12pm and 6pm. Blowing dust around KROW may lead to IFR
cigs/vsbys with potential for Dust Storm Warnings by mid to late
Sunday afternoon. Surface winds are expected to gradually weaken
Sunday evening while snow showers linger over the high terrain of
northern and western NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 AM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM DUE
TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

Very strong west/southwest winds will develop this afternoon over
eastern NM where gusts of 55 to 65 mph are expected. The combination
of strong winds with marginally critical humidity will allow any
fires that do develop to spread within fine fuel beds. A backdoor
cold front will then surge southward into eastern NM this evening
and alleviate the critical conditions. Monday and Tuesday will
feature more rain and snow showers with blustery winds and below
normal temperatures. A warming and drying trend is expected by the
middle of the week followed by stronger winds toward the end of the
week. A more unsettled pattern may return by next weekend with more
strong winds, rain, snow, and cooler temps.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  29  50  30  49 /  20   5   0  20
Dulce...........................  24  45  17  44 /  40  50  10  50
Cuba............................  25  42  24  41 /  50  40  10  50
Gallup..........................  21  44  26  45 /  60  20  20  50
El Morro........................  23  39  24  39 /  50  30  20  70
Grants..........................  23  45  26  44 /  30  20  10  40
Quemado.........................  24  42  26  42 /  20  30  20  70
Magdalena.......................  29  46  30  46 /   5  20  20  50
Datil...........................  25  41  26  42 /  10  20  20  50
Reserve.........................  23  46  26  45 /  10  40  20  60
Glenwood........................  32  48  33  47 /  30  40  20  70
Chama...........................  21  39  13  37 /  50  70  30  60
Los Alamos......................  28  42  26  42 /  40  60  20  40
Pecos...........................  26  39  20  42 /  40  80  30  40
Cerro/Questa....................  29  35  23  36 /  70  80  60  40
Red River.......................  18  31  14  32 /  80  90  70  60
Angel Fire......................  17  31  13  33 /  70  90  70  60
Taos............................  24  39  19  41 /  60  80  50  30
Mora............................  24  34  17  41 /  50  90  50  40
Espanola........................  31  48  27  48 /  50  60  30  30
Santa Fe........................  28  41  24  43 /  50  70  30  50
Santa Fe Airport................  30  45  26  47 /  40  60  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  32  49  33  49 /  20  40  10  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  34  52  34  52 /  10  30   5  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  33  54  34  54 /  10  30   5  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  34  52  33  52 /  10  30   5  30
Belen...........................  32  55  35  55 /  10  20  10  30
Bernalillo......................  34  52  33  52 /  20  40  10  30
Bosque Farms....................  32  54  34  54 /  10  30   5  30
Corrales........................  33  53  33  52 /  20  30   5  30
Los Lunas.......................  32  54  35  55 /  10  30   5  30
Placitas........................  32  48  31  48 /  30  50  10  40
Rio Rancho......................  32  52  33  52 /  20  30   5  30
Socorro.........................  34  56  37  55 /  10  20  10  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  28  43  29  43 /  20  50  10  40
Tijeras.........................  30  45  29  46 /  20  50  10  40
Edgewood........................  29  46  27  46 /  10  50  10  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  27  47  26  48 /  10  50  10  20
Clines Corners..................  25  40  23  43 /  20  60  20  20
Mountainair.....................  27  45  28  46 /  20  40  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  27  47  29  46 /  10  40  20  40
Carrizozo.......................  30  50  32  50 /  10  40  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  26  43  28  43 /  10  40  20  40
Capulin.........................  17  27  15  40 /  80  60  20  20
Raton...........................  21  34  18  44 /  70  70  50  20
Springer........................  25  37  20  47 /  40  60  50  20
Las Vegas.......................  26  34  20  44 /  30  70  40  30
Clayton.........................  25  34  21  46 /  70  50  10  10
Roy.............................  26  37  23  47 /  30  70  30  20
Conchas.........................  32  43  28  56 /  30  60  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  31  42  25  54 /  20  60  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  31  42  27  55 /  20  50  10  30
Clovis..........................  34  45  28  56 /  10  40  10  30
Portales........................  33  48  27  59 /   5  30  10  20
Fort Sumner.....................  33  47  28  57 /  10  50  10  20
Roswell.........................  38  59  35  61 /   5  20  10  10
Picacho.........................  33  54  32  55 /   0  20  10  20
Elk.............................  30  51  30  51 /   5  20  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ223-225-226-229>240.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ104-126.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ202-206-210-
211-213-214.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening
for NMZ208-212-215-220>222-224-228-241.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Monday for NMZ215-227.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42


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