Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
000
FXAK69 PAFG 211831
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1031 AM AKDT Thu Mar 21 2024



.SYNOPSIS...

An active weather pattern will persist into the weekend for the
west coast of Alaska as a as series of fronts will bring periods
of strong winds, snow and freezing rain as well. Elsewhere,
mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures for the
Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Model Discussion...

Models in good agreement for the short term. Ridging will persist
over the Interior through Friday then slide to the east over the
weekend. Shortwaves will continue to move north over the west
coast through Friday. Coldest 850 temps remain over the west coast
but there will be areas of mixed precipitation over the inland
areas of the west coast. A shortwave will push inland Friday night
and Saturday over the Interior. This shortwave has strong cold
air advection with it and precipitation Friday evening through
Saturday should be mostly snow for the Interior. A warm front
moving north along the west coast from Bristol Bay Saturday
afternoon through Monday will likely bring a return of mixed
precipitation.



Central and Eastern Interior...

Warmer conditions continue for the Interior with high
temperatures rising again today into the 20s in the Yukon Flats
and into the 30s and 40s elsewhere. Temperatures continue to climb
through Sunday, with 30s and widespread 40s by then. Winds will
be 15 mph or less with the exception of Alaska Range passes, where
southerly gap winds could gust to 50 mph this afternoon through
Friday afternoon. There is a slight chance of precipitation as far
east as Fairbanks on Friday night and early Saturday morning. If
any precipitation falls in the central Interior then, it will
likely be snow, but there is a chance it will be freezing rain as
850 mb temperatures hover just below 0 C. Any precipitation that
falls will be extremely light.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

A low pressure system passing to the northwest will bring winds up
to 20 to 30 mph from Point Lay to Utqiagvik Friday night and
Saturday morning. Otherwise winds will be 15 mph or less away from
Brooks Range passes. Through Brooks Range passes, expect south
winds increasing today then gusting to 45 mph tonight and
Friday and diminishing Friday night. Areas of light snow are
expected west of Utqiagvik through Saturday. The heaviest
accumulations will be near Point Hope at around 4 inches.
Temperatures will continue to warm today and be well above normal
through Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

Special Weather Statement and advisories remain in effect as
numerous frontal systems bring snow, blowing snow, and mixed
precipitation to the west coast and Lower Yukon Valley. There will
be short breaks between each system. The warm front moving to the
Yukon Delta this morning will exit the region to the north late
Friday evening and there will be a break until another warm front
arrives at the Yukon Delta mid-day Saturday. A cold front on
Friday night will bring temperatures back into the teens and 20s
from the Seward Peninsula north for Saturday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

Strong southerly winds will result in elevated water levels along
the southern Seward Peninsula coast through Thursday. This will
cause water to rise up through cracks in the sea ice and push
water on top of the ice in some areas. Some coastal trails on the
ice or near the shore could become inundated with water. Ice
shoves may be possible for vulnerable coasts along south-facing
coastlines.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...

Ridging will persist but gradually weaken into the middle of next
week over the central and eastern Interior, bringing continued
above normal temperatures, albeit on a cooling trend. The weaker
ridge may allow for light precipitation beginning Monday or
Tuesday as shortwaves pass north over the Alaska Range through SE
flow. On the West Coast, the active weather pattern looks to
continue with numerous frontal systems bringing continued snow,
blowing snow, and mixed precipitation. An Upper level trough will
bring back in colder 850 temps over Northwest Alaska early next
week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ814.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ823.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825-826-830.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>805-808>811-850-852>856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816-817-851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.