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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240538
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
138 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide off the Carolina coast this evening. A
weak cold front pushes through the region on Wednesday, with a
few showers expected. Strong high pressure then builds from the
eastern Great Lakes eastward to off the New England coast
Thursday through Friday. A marked warming trend is then expected
for Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 710 PM EDT Tuesday...

Overall, a very nice late-April day across the region will give
way to a pleasant evening. Clouds will be on the increase from
NW to SE overnight, becoming overcast N/NW prior to daybreak and
partly cloudy across Hampton Roads by 12z Wed. It will also be
milder tonight due to the increase in cloud cover and persistent
south to southwest winds. Lows in the upr 40s to mid 50s. A
cold front will be encroaching on N/NW portions of the FA by 12z
Wed and models do show scattered isold/wdly showers developing.
Will have some low chc PoPs (~25-30%) across northern areas
late tonight to account for this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday

Deterministic models remain in good agreement with an upper
trough and main sfc low tracking east across Ontario/Quebec into
northern New England on Wednesday, dragging its cold front
through the local area during the late morning/aftn hours.
Most of the moisture with this system gets scoured out in the
Appalachians to the west, as the low-level flow turns downslope
(westerly) rather quickly. As such, only scattered light rain
showers are anticipated. PoPs will only be 30-40%, with QPF on
the order of a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. Most of
the shower activity will be over by 21z Wed or at most just
slight chc PoPs. Highs in the low to mid 70s, except upper 60s
for the immediate coast.

The front pushes SSE of the area Wed night, with sfc high pressure
building eastward across the Great Lakes. There still seems enough
mixing to keep temperatures from dropping off too much except
over the far N/NW zones Wed night. Lows will be around 40F NW
to around 50F SE. High pressure builds east from the eastern
Great Lakes to off the New England coast Thu through Fri. Mostly
sunny and cool Thu/Fri with highs ranging from the mid 50s to
mid 60s (coolest along the coast Thu due to modest onshore flow).
Clear/mostly clear Thu night with lows ranging from the upr 30s
to mid 40s. Patchy frost may be possible once again, mainly
over the northern 1/2 of the FA from the piedmont to e-central
VA and the eastern shore. A bit milder Fri night as the airmass
modifies (but remains near to below normal) courtesy of
persistent onshore flow. Lows Friday night range through the
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

The medium range forecast period begins with an amplifying
upper ridge from the Gulf of Mexico to the upper midwest,
expanding to the east coast over the weekend. This ridge
continues to look a bit stronger than modeled earlier this week,
which should keep the FA mainly dry through the weekend.
Temperatures trend back upward through the period; from near
normal Sat (highs in the 70s, except 60s Eastern Shore), to
above normal Sun-Mon (low-mid 80s inland, upper 70s to around 80
coast) as the upper ridge remains across the ern CONUS. The
next system will approach Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Showers and isold storms will be possible with the frontal
passage itself next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Wednesday...

Mid to high clouds continue to increase early this morning ahead
of an approaching cold front. Expect VFR conditions to prevail
through the 06z TAF period. Winds will generally be SW early
this morning with some gusts to ~20 kt, especially at the
coastal terminals. Have allowed for some LLWS at RIC/SBY early
this morning through around sunrise. Scattered showers are
expected ahead of and with the cold frontal passage from around
sunrise into mid to late afternoon. Will limit mention to VCSH
at ECG with VCSH/-SHRA at all other terminals with flight
categories remaining VFR throughout the period (CIGs lowering to
5-7 kft AGL by late morning/early afternoon). Winds generally
become westerly behind the frontal passage this evening.

Outlook: Behind the frontal passage, dry and predominately VFR
conditions persist for the late week period into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 335 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in place for all local waters this evening into
Wednesday.

- Another round of SCA conditions is likely late Wednesday night
into Thursday behind a cold front.


Sfc low pressure is well offshore this afternoon with high pressure
situated over the far SE CONUS. This high will slide east into the
Atlantic overnight. Latest wind obs show SE winds of 10-15kt with a
few sites in the lower bay already gusting to around 20kt. Latest
buoy obs reflect seas of 2-3ft and waves 1-2ft. SCAs in the bay will
start at 4pm with the other zones following later this evening.

As the high slides offshore, winds become S with gusts to 25 kt this
evening into early tonight, becoming SW 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt
late tonight ahead of a cold front. Winds diminish below SCA
criteria by Wed afternoon. The cold front crosses the local waters
Wed evening into early Wed night with winds becoming N/NE 15-25 kt
with gusts to 30 kt late Wed night into Thu. Another round of SCAs
will likely be needed for this surge. NE winds diminish Thu morning
across the N waters but remain 15-20 kt across the S coastal waters
(and potentially the lower bay/mouth of the bay) into the afternoon.
High pressure builds in across New England Thu night into Fri before
gradually sliding off the coast Sat. Winds generally remain NE/E 10-
15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt into Sat, becoming SE late Sat
and S Sat night into early next week.

Waves and seas build to 3-4 ft and 4-7 ft tonight. Seas gradually
subside below 5 ft by Tue evening before building back to 4-6 ft
late Tue night into Thu behind the cold front.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 500 AM EDT Tuesday...

Winds become SE/S this afternoon into early tonight before
becoming SW after midnight. As such, water will be pushed into
the upper bay before being redirected towards the western coast
of the Maryland Eastern Shore later tonight during high tide.
Tidal anomalies of 1-1.6 feet are expected which should allow
Bishops Head and Cambridge to reach solidly into Minor Flood
stage. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for
tonight`s high tide across portions of the Maryland Eastern
Shore. Winds diminish Wednesday along with tidal anomalies.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630-
     631-633-635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/RHR
SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM/MAM
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...AM/RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...