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000
FXUS61 KALY 220500
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
100 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a chilly night tonight, another cool, breezy and dry day
is expected for Monday with a mostly sunny sky. It will slightly
milder on Tuesday with increasing clouds, before a cold front
returns some rain to the region for Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with colder weather returning for the rest of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 100 AM EDT, an upper-level trough to our north
will begin to depart the region to the east. A surface cold
front is pushing southeastward across the region. This front is
producing some clouds and isolated rain/snow showers across the
Adirondacks. With latest regional radars suggesting some
precipitation may be reaching the ground across the Adirondacks,
have included slight chance pops there for the next few hours.
As the trough continues to depart, the clouds and precipitation
will fizzle out and give way to mostly clear and dry conditions
toward daybreak as high pressure begins to nose in from the
south and west. A northwesterly wind/breeze may pick up across
some areas after the passage of the front. A chilly night is
expected otherwise with lows generally in the mid-20s to
mid-30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold advection through the day Monday with sunshine and steady
west to northwest winds. Highs in the mid 50s to near 60, with
upper 40s to around 50 higher terrain.

Upper trough lifts north and east out of our region Monday night
into Tuesday and warm advection occurs. Low level flow turns to
the south and some high clouds increase Tuesday afternoon, ahead
of the next upper energy. Highs Tuesday in the 60s with upper
50s higher terrain.

Upper closed low drops out of Canada Tuesday night into
Wednesday and phases with another upper impulse approaching from
the Great Lakes. Showers will spread into the region through
Tuesday night and Wednesday should be showery much of the day.
The upper low, upper trough and associated low level cold front
will exit Wednesday into Wednesday night. Temperatures will
likely fall through Wednesday afternoon as coverage of showers
decreases through the afternoon, ending by evening. Highs
Wednesday in the 50s, with 40s in higher terrain, and
temperatures dropping in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry weather and increasing sunshine Thursday as a cooler and
drier airmass spreads into the region. Highs in the mid to upper
50s with 40s higher terrain. Gradual warming Friday into
Saturday with upper ridging building in and warm advection.
Highs both days in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lower to mid
50s higher terrain.

There are some disagreements in sources of guidance/ensembles as
to the timing of upper energy approaching from the west Toward
next weekend. Some clouds and showers are possible Friday night
into Saturday and Sunday, depending on the timing with
potential stronger warm advection and moisture advection. Highs
Saturday and Sunday in the mid 50s to lower 60s with a few mid
60s Hudson Valley from the Capital Region southward.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00z Tuesday...VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
entirety of the 00z TAF period as high pressure subsidence
continues to work towards clearing skies overnight. Winds have
significantly decreased across the TAF sites, but expect a light
breeze to persist out of the northwest overnight and into
tomorrow. Sustained speeds will generally range from about 5 to
10 kt throughout the TAF period, though speeds overnight could
fall to about 2 to 5 kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather will be in place across the region for through
Tuesday. While temperatures will be on the cool side through
tomorrow, valley areas should be back into the 60s by Tuesday.
Monday and Tuesday look fairly sunny, but some clouds will
increase by later in the day Tuesday.

On Monday, RH values could be as low as 20 to 30 percent during
the afternoon hours. RH values will again drop on Tuesday into
the 35 to 45 percent range during peak heating.

Winds will be westerly Monday with some gusts 15 to 20 mph in
the afternoon hours. Southerly winds on Tuesday could gust as
high as 25 mph late in the day.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Gant
FIRE WEATHER...NAS