Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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524 FXUS63 KAPX 301919 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 319 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Occasional rain chances into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Pattern Forecast: Weak surface high pressure moves across the region through early tonight. A low pressure system will then track by to the north of the region late tonight into Wednesday morning (across Lake Superior). Cooler air moves in behind this system Wednesday afternoon. Forecast Details: Instability driven clouds are expected to dissipate this evening only to be replaced by a lowering cloud deck late tonight into Wednesday morning. Cold air advection behind the low pressure system likely leads to more instability clouds (especially north) Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile...a line of warm advection/synoptically driven rain showers are likely across the Upper Peninsula and Northwest Lower late tonight into Wednesday morning. Just chances for a few showers across southern zones with the least chances for showers as you head down toward Saginaw Bay. Lows tonight ranging from the upper 30s far north to the mid 40s south. Lowered highs for Wednesday with a large range of temperatures expected. Highs only in the mid 50s north with low 70s expected near Saginaw Bay. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Pattern Forecast: Mid-level shortwave troughing and attendant area of surface low pressure expected to be scooting off to the northeast at the start of the period Wednesday night. Troughing set to be replaced by amplifying ridging aloft through Thursday in advance of another system pinwheeling across the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains. Warm/moist advection in advance of a warm front associated with this system will aid to bring rain/thunder chances back into the forecast late Thursday into Friday. Another quick- moving disturbance over the weekend may bring another brief shot of active weather. Forecast Details: At the start of the forecast period Wednesday night, low pressure centered to the east of Lake Superior will continue to depart downstream. Perhaps a lingering sprinkle or light shower far north; otherwise, tranquil conditions anticipated Wed. night - Thursday with Thursday afternoon highs climbing through the mid-upper 60s for most...cooler near the lakeshores and eastern U.P. Next shower/storm chances arrives late in the day Thursday into Thursday night in response to warm/moist advection and increased forcing for ascent aloft -- all associated with low pressure sliding through the northern Plains to near the Manitoba/Ontario border by midday Friday. System`s cold front crosses Friday morning/midday, continuing at least scattered shower and low thunder chances into early afternoon. A break in the action expected Friday night through much of Saturday, but with at least low PoPs returning to the forecast by later Saturday/Saturday night in response to another quick-moving disturbance progged to race across the western Great Lakes. Generally quiet weather to round out the weekend. Somewhat noteworthy is daily high temperatures through pretty much the entirety of the long term forecast period rising into the 60s and low 70s for the majority of northern Michigan -- of course cooler near the lakeshores (as is so often the case this time of year) and across the eastern U.P. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Conditions vary at all taf sites and this is expected to continue through the taf period. Low pressure will move by to the northwest late tonight into Wednesday morning bringing a decent shot of showers to at least the northern taf sites. Cigs will vary from IFR north to low end VFR south. Westerly winds will be just a tad gusty this afternoon. After a lull in winds for much of tonight, winds will be gusty out of the southeast Wednesday morning then shift into the southwest toward the end of the taf period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJS LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...AJS