384
FXUS63 KAPX 071921
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
321 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances tonight through mid day Wednesday with embedded
thunder

- Couple opportunities for showers and minor accumulation
  Thursday into the the weekend, cooler too.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current radar shows a line of
moderate rain showers orientated from NW/SE beginning to move across
northern lower this afternoon. Webcams near Empire Beach show a
shelf cloud associated with this precip. No lightning strikes have
been detected yet, however KMBL is reporting heavier rainfall. This
aligns with CAMs current forecasts for little to no instability
quiet yet. This intial band will break apart as it moves across
northern lower, as it is detached from the surface front that gave
it life earlier this morning. Rain chances with isolated embedded
thunder will persist overnight tonight as the cold/occluded front
will move over the state. Most of the thunder threats will be gone
by morning with light rain lingering through mid day for eastern
upper and the tip of the mitt.  Winds will turn north to northwest
Wednesday with clouds lingering most of the day. Temperatures will
be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler especially with areas of persistent
cloud cover.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Surface observations
currently place the surface cold front over WI/IL/MO this afternoon.
Convection is already beginning to initiate along the boundary. An
upper level short wave will move a jet over IL/IN this afternoon,
which will carry the surface low towards MI. Upper and mid level
heights will quickly decrease after 00Z as stronger winds aloft move
over the southern part of the state. This will slightly increase
instability over northern lower to a few hundred joules of MU CAPE.
By this time, there will be enough moisture in the lower levels due
to the first round of precip saturating the atmosphere and advection
near the surface. The main thunder threat exists over northern
lower, as the front will likely be occluded over eastern upper and
the instability overnight will be mostly conditional. Synoptic
forcing will create the widespread rain/precip but the embedded
thunder will mostly rely on the boundaries forcing. Therefore, the
best chances for thunder will be over NW lower this evening, and NE
lower tonight. The main threats with the thunder will be brief heavy
rain and marginally gusty winds. There isn`t enough energy up here
for threats to be severe at this time. Total rainfall forecasted is
generally 0.25 to 0.75 inches over northern lower. Areas that see
convection could see rainfall up to an inch. Eastern upper and the
tip of the mitt will have better chances of widespread one inch due
to rain lingering into Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Mess of energy rotates around
and to the south of northern Michigan Thursday into the
nighttime, thus keeping a low pressure system to the south of
the region with rain shower chances. Next vigorous short wave
drops down from Canada into the Upper Midwest this weekend with
a chance for more showers and continued cool weather.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Conglomerate of energy rotates north
to south and east to west across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valleyish
region on Thursday. This will likely result in a low pressure
system tracking to the south of northern Michigan, with just the
potential for showers across southern areas. Like the look of
GEFS (other ENS agree/are shifting south) with this system which
spits out low probs for 0.1" of QPF with this event, mainly
along and south of M-32, farther south better chance, less so
north. Generally expecting light rain accumulation favoring the
southern half of northern lower, and thus should not be a big
deal (we`ll see how far south/north the precip shield deviates
in the coming days). North to northeasterly flow will result in
cool temps with perhaps some opportunity for patchy frost across
the interior (sometime between Thurs night - Saturday night?
We`ll see).

Cooler (seasonable though) weather to remain into the weekend as
energy aloft dives down from Canada into the Upper Midwest. Right
now it appears the best chance for showers will be Saturday, but
still uncertain on how far southwest this energy will track, and if
any additional pieces merge and slow down the system. Current fcst
suggests a quicker moving system with light precipitation but we`ll
keep an eye on this moving forward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Currently VFR skies with winds E/SE generally 10kts with
G15-20kts. A line of SHRA is approaching KMBL currently and will
continue eastward tonight. Mostly MVFR/IFR cigs and vis will be
seen, however chances for embedded TS could lead to times of +RA
especailly for NW lower terminals 22Z - 03Z and for NE lower
terminals 02Z - 08Z. Terminals could see vis and cigs drop to
IFR/LIFR during the aforementioned windows if TS & +RA moves
over. Chances for VCSH linger over E Upper and tip of the mitt
terminals through ~15Z. Winds will veer to the N/NW by 12Z for
most sites. Gusty winds could be seen near VCTS/TS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...ELD