810
FXUS63 KBIS 122008
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
308 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers, with a rumble or two of thunder possible,
  mainly in the southwest this afternoon and early evening.

- Near average temperatures this upcoming week with highs in the
  mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Presently, upper low pressure is located over northern Ontario with
a ridge over the Rockies. As a result, northwesterly flow aloft
is present. This had brought Canadian wildfire smoke into the
area, while a cold frontal boundary drug it to the surface early
this morning. That said, other than a few patches in the north
central and far south, visibility reducing smoke has generally
cleared out of the forecast area. Still, lower concentrations of
smoke are likely still present in many areas and thus a hazy
appearance may persist through the remainder of the day.

A weak embedded shortwave is bringing showers into southwestern
North Dakota. However, with approximately 30 to 35 degree
dewpoint depressions and soundings suggesting dry air extending
a fair amount off the surface, any precipitation that falls
should be fairly light if it even reaches the surface. A few
additional showers may develop later this afternoon.
Instability looks very limited, however, with only up to a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE in the far southwest. As a result, there
could be a few rumbles of thunder, but thunderless precipitation
is likely to prevail overall.

A few showers are then possible as early as late Monday morning in
the northwest, with a few thunderstorms possible in the west during
the afternoon. However, the potential for showers and
thunderstorms increases Monday night through Tuesday with a 60
to 70 percent chance of precipitation as a strong shortwave
passes through the area. Instability of 500 to 1000 J/kg of
skinny CAPE is possible Monday afternoon in far western North
Dakota. Combined with potentially 25 to 30 kt of 0 to 6 km Bulk
Shear, a few strong thunderstorms are not out of the question.
Even a brief, pulsing severe storm or two wouldn`t be entirely
surprising should the right conditions develop.

Beyond Tuesday night, periodic shower and thunderstorm chances
look to persist through the remainder of the week as various
waves slide through the region. Temperatures for the week look
to be seasonable with highs mostly in the 60s and low 70s
through Friday, then potentially a bit cooler for next weekend.
Lows will be mostly in the 40s for most locations most nights.
The main exception is that tonight could see lows drop into the
upper 30s mainly in the Turtle Mountains. Brief frost isn`t
entirely out of the question in the Turtle Mountains early
Monday morning, but confidence is low as forecast temperatures
keep creeping slightly upwards.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Near-surface smoke that had been resulting in reduced
visibility earlier this morning has cleared over all but far
southern and eastern ND. As a result, VFR visibility has
returned to all terminals at this time in western through
central ND. Overall, VFR ceilings and visibility should now
prevail through the period. However, there are a few radar
returns entering western North Dakota. With dry air in place,
most locations will remain dry through the day. That said, a
shower or two, possibly with a rumble of thunder, are possible
over the southwest this afternoon. Otherwise, additional showers
may begin moving into northwestern ND Monday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken