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000
FXUS64 KBRO 142317 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
617 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The center of a 500 mb ridge will remain to the south of Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through Monday night. This will keep
the rain away for the area as a consequence and above average
temperatures as well. Meanwhile, on the surface, low pressure over
the Sierra Madre and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will
continue to create a tight pressure gradient over the region. This
will stir up breezy to windy conditions with stronger winds expected
to occur in the Lower Rio Grande Valley tomorrow. However, the winds
are not expected to be strong enough to require a Wind Advisory. The
southeasterly winds will bring in low level moisture that will help
foster the growth of clouds to the region.

As what is expected for the temperatures in the short term forecast
period. Low temperatures tonight will be mostly in the 70s, but
parts of the Northern Ranchlands will be in the upper 60s. Then for
tomorrow night, the low temperatures will be in the lower 70s for
the entire area. The high temperatures for tomorrow are expected to
be in the 90s for most of the area, but locations along the coast
and on island will be in the upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Key Messages:

* Dry, tranquil, very warm, and humid conditions will persist
  through much of the long-term period

* Next best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Saturday
  Night into Sunday

A zonal to semi-zonal flow pattern aloft will continue through the
long-term forecast period. At the surface, the lack of any
advancing frontal boundaries on top of continued influences from a
large surface high pressure system to our east will help to keep
things dry and tranquil Tuesday into through Saturday.

Light to moderate winds out of the southeast will help to maintain
very warm and humid airmass in place Tuesday through Saturday with
daytime highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and dewpoints in the lower
70s. Nights through this period will be warm and muggy with
overnight lows in the lower 70s (similar to the dewpoint temps).

Saturday night into Sunday, global deterministic weather models and
ensembles, particularly the ECMWF/ECE and Canadian/CMC are signaling
at the potential showers and thunderstorms developing and sweeping
across our area from north to south along and ahead of a cold front.
More salient details will be provided in the days ahead as we
continue to monitor trends. That said, should the atmospheric
dynamics/ingredients remain in place, there is the potential for
some of these thunderstorms to become strong to severe Saturday
night into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

MVFR conditions at BRO will prevail through the overnight hours.
HRL and MFE, while currently at VFR will fall to MVFR as well
later this evening as low-level clouds move continue to move into
the region. VFR is expected to return by mid to late Monday
morning. Breezy southeasterly winds will continue overnight, and
increase further by midday Monday with gusts to around 30 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Tonight through Monday Night...Low pressure over Mexico and high
pressure over the Gulf will generate a tightened pressure gradient
that will result in breezy winds and moderates seas along the Lower
Texas Coast. A combination of Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small
Craft Advisory will be need due to the adverse and hazardous
conditions on the waters.

Tuesday through Sunday....Favorable marine conditions are expected
through much of the long-term period with light to moderate winds
and moderate seas. Tuesday through Tuesday night will be the only
timeframe where there could be Small Craft Advisory to Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions due to wave heights over the Gulf Waters
that will range between 4-7 feet. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible over the Lower Texas Coastal Waters Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             72  84  73  88 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               70  88  72  91 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 72  90  75  94 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         70  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      73  78  73  79 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     70  84  72  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132-
     135.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68