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000
FXUS61 KBTV 160540
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
140 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers will move through the region this evening before
tapering off later in the night. Dry and pleasant spring weather is
on tap on for tomorrow and Wednesday with temperatures close to
normal. Widespread showers return to end the work week but they
should move out by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 137 AM EDT Tuesday..No changes needed to crnt fcst with
latest obs indicating some patchy low level/shallow fog has
developed at SLK. Expect intervals of patchy fog where rain
occurred this evening, but bl winds should limit coverage.

Previous discussion...
A few showers are currently in the southern parts of the region
but they should exit by this evening. In any of the heaviest
showers, there is the slight chance of pea sized hail. Behind
the showers, there will be a few hours of dry weather and there
should even be some breaks in the clouds. However, another
shortwave will pass through later this evening and it will bring
another round of scattered showers. These should be mostly
confined to northern areas though. After these showers move out,
skies will begin to clear later in the night into tomorrow
morning. If the clearing can happen quick enough, there is the
chance that fog develops in the some of the sheltered hollows as
there is abundant low-level moisture remaining. Winds should be
light enough that the boundary later will be able to decouple
at least in the sheltered areas. Lows will be close to normal,
with temperatures generally falling into the 30s across the
region. A colder airmass will move in for the day tomorrow so
daytime heating will lead to convective clouds, particularly
over northeast Vermont, and an isolated sprinkle cannot be
completely ruled out. However, highs should still be able to
rise to around normal, with temperatures generally maxing out in
the 50s. Ridging will start to build in Tuesday night and
combined with the end of diurnal heating, the clouds should
mostly clear out. This should allow temperatures to drop down
below normal, with lows in the 20s and 30s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 PM EDT Monday...Anticyclonic flow will promote dry air and
a sunny start to the day with the ridge axis centered over western
New York. Said ridge will gradually shift into eastern New York
through the day with high clouds streaming in but there won`t be any
chance of significant/opaque clouds with the strong ridging in place
in our region. So have backed off from the NBM sky cover percentage
thinking a sunny sky, rather than partly sunny, will prevail across
northern New York in the morning and perhaps across Vermont all day
long looking at various forecast soundings. Although humidity will
remain low, dew points will tend to rise in the later part of the
day with modest low level moisture advection from the northwest.
Clouds should push further eastward and thicken somewhat overnight
ahead of a weakening, occluded front. Some precipitation may fall
out of these clouds, and once they moisten the low level air enough
some showers may reach the ground by daybreak Thursday in our far
southwestern areas, with best chances of measurable rain in southern
St. Lawrence County. The cloud cover will probably support a night
where temperatures fall off early and then become steady. So expect
some variability in low temperatures that generally fall on the
milder side, in the mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 338 PM EDT Monday...Three distinct, minor precipitation events
from Thursday through Saturday are expected followed by dry
conditions for early next week.

No further clarity on Thursday`s weather details, unfortunately,
with regards to timing of precipitation. What we do know is the rain
will be generally light; even the 90th percentile 24 hour
precipitation amounts in the wettest scenario is under 0.5" and only
in our western areas. High temperatures Thursday likewise remain
highly uncertain owing to the differences in eastward progress of
rain and thicker cloud cover, so no significant changes to the
forecast were made with highs still forecast to be in the mid to
upper 50s. Overall we continue to show rain is more likely as you go
westward with slow progression to the east. The latest ensemble mean
timing for measurable precipitation suggests rain doesn`t arrive in
central and northeastern Vermont until after dark, while potentially
being ongoing in the St. Lawrence Valley Thursday morning. Through
Thursday night, there`s at least a 40% chance of rain in far eastern
Vermont, near 65% in the Champlain Valley, and 70-85% from the
Adirondacks westward. This round of rain is most likely to end
Friday morning areawide as brief ridging moves back overhead.

The expected cold frontal passage Friday night, in contrast, has
better model agreement at this time both in timing and sharpness.
The ingredients for instability look meager at best, but the front
looks strong enough for low level convergence to support widespread
showers and briefly moderate rainfall along the front. This event
will probably result in more rainfall in most locations than the
Thursday one, but again, not a significant amount to cause impactful
weather.

Finally, on Saturday in the post-frontal air mass, there does look
to be sufficient upper level forcing to support scattered shower
activity with lingering low level moisture. If that moisture is
meager enough, it could stay dry as signals for low humidity are
present. Additionally, the westerly flow continues to look
substantial and wind gusts have trended upward into the 25 to 30 MPH
range. Temperatures will reach their coolest levels of the period
Saturday night into Sunday behind the front before we see the air
mass modify. Temperatures over the weekend will be largely
seasonable, especially if there is plenty of sunshine to produce
superadiabatic lapse rates.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions anticipated the
next 12 to 24 hours, however shallow fog has developed at SLK
early this morning associated with brief rain shower earlier.
Feel intervals of IFR are possible thru 10z, but confidence is
rather low given bl winds around 5 knots and some mid lvl
clouds. Therefore have utilized tempo group from 06z to 10z for
IFR in fog/br. Elsewhere expect VFR conditions with some
intervals of mid/upper lvl clouds and mostly light and variable
winds.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Taber
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Taber