568
FXUS62 KCAE 101040
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
640 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible again today as
a cold front approaches and moves through the area today. High
pressure then moves in for the weekend, bringing dry weather.
The high moves offshore Monday and increasing moisture supports
showers and thunderstorms returning for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Currently, a shortwave trough is moving into the Southeast,
bringing a cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms along
with it. This showers activity is slowly approaching the CSRA.
The strongest thunderstorms in this complex are expected to
remain well south of the region.

Today...The shortwave crossing into the Southeast this morning
is expected to continue quickly moving eastward, bringing the
chance for showers and embedded thunderstorms along with it. The
best chance for precipitation from this wave is across the
southern portions of the forecast area, but some shower activity
could work its way into the upper CSRA and western Midlands. By
the time it arrives to our neck of the woods, instability
should be lacking somewhat so the severe weather threat with
this round of activity is low. Latest guidance has this cluster
moving through the region rather quickly, allowing for some
clearing behind it. The clearing is will likely lead to some
destabilization in the atmosphere as temperatures are forecast
to rise into the 80s. The larger scale trough over the Upper
Midwest is expected to translate toward the Southeast. An
associated surface cold front is also anticipated to move
through the area this afternoon. Latest hi- res guidance
indicates some scattered convection initiation occurring this
afternoon as the front moves through the area. Ahead of the
front, a ribbon of instability is anticipated to develop. The
HREF mean surface based CAPE is showing a mean of 1000-1500 J/kg
moving with 0-6 km mean bulk shear values of 40+ knots, which
should be sufficient enough to produce strong to potentially
severe storms. The strongest energy from the crossing trough is
forecast to be along and north of the Northern Midlands into the
PeeDee. This is where the highest risk of severe weather exists
this afternoon. Damaging winds will be the main threat with any
storms that do form, with hail and tornadoes being secondary
threats. As such, SPC has a slight risk (2/5) of severe weather
for the far eastern portions of Chesterfield County and a
marginal risk (1/5) everywhere else in the forecast area. The
overall severe threat today is dependent on how quickly the
morning activity moves out of the region.

Tonight: After the cold front and associated convection exits
the region this evening, clearing skies are expected to be
ushered in tonight. North to northwest winds are also expected
to bring some cooler temperatures tonight compared to the past
several nights with lows dropping into the 50s for most
locations. A few upper 40s aren`t out of the question in the
northern and western portions of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday and Saturday night: Upper trough axis will be shifting east
of the forecast area with a drier air mass building over the region
as PWATs are around a half inch. A secondary shortwave trough is
forecast to dive into the Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon which will
push a weak frontal boundary through the forecast area Saturday
night. PWATs rise to just under and inch with the boundary but
moisture remains limited and low/mid level flow is from the
northwest with a downslope component so do not expect any rain.
Temperatures on Saturday are expected to be slightly below normal
with highs in the 70s and lows Saturday night in the low to mid 50s

Sunday and Sunday night: Shortwave ridging will move over the
forecast area on Sunday as the shortwave trough to the north moves
off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This should provide another nice day
across the region with plenty of sunshine and slightly warmer
temperatures with rising heights. PWATs remain low around 0.6-0.8
inches with northwesterly flow throughout the atmospheric column.
Temperatures should warm about a category with highs on Sunday
expected back in the lower 80s with lows Sunday night again in the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A return to an active weather pattern returns by Tuesday with
ensembles suggesting a few shortwaves moving through the 500mb flow
next week. Dry weather is expected early Monday with some weak
shortwave ridging crossing the area but moisture increases Monday
afternoon with south to southwesterly flow developing and PWATs rise
above normal by 00z. Some isolated showers possible with daytime
heating and then increasing showers Monday night as shortwave energy
moves into the region with continued moisture advection.

PWATs rise to 150-170% of normal by Tuesday afternoon with
increasing southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching upper trough
and frontal boundary. The combination of moisture and instability
should support chances of thunderstorms and cannot rule out isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms although confidence this far out
remains limited in any severe threat. Expect a bit of a break on
Wednesday as the first shortwave passes to the east but ensemble
means show another shortwave moving into the region on Thursday with
varying differences in timing and amplitude but it should result in
additional rain chances across the forecast area.

Temperatures during this period are expected to be near normal early
in the week to above normal by mid week with highs in the 80s and
lows in the upper 50s to 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Any restrictions this morning should improve by mid morning
followed by generally VFR conditions. Restrictions are possible
again this afternoon.

IFR ceilings are being noted at CAE and CUB this morning, while
high clouds have hindered stratus development at AGS, DNL, and
OGB. These ceilings are anticipated to improve to VFR around
14z. Showers moving into the area should bring some light rain
to AGS and DNL, and potentially OGB, so have introduce -SHRA to
AGS and DNL and VCSH to OGB. Left mention of showers out of CAE
and CUB for the time being as showers are expected to stay
south. Another round of scattered showers and storms are
forecast to move through the region during the 18z-00z
timeframe. Most of this activity looks to remain north of AGS
and DNL, so have left mention of VCSH there for now. After the
afternoon activity moves out, drier air and clear skies filter
in behind it. Breezy west to southwest winds expected through
about 00z before shifting to northwest behind a frontal passage.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are
possible Monday and Tuesday along with associated restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...