957
FXUS61 KCAR 282207
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
607 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the region tonight. High pressure builds
in Monday through Tuesday, then tracks south of the Gulf of
Maine Wednesday. High pressure returns Thursday, followed by
another approaching low from the west on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY...
6:07 PM Update: A cold front is now moving into the Saint
Lawrence River Valley. The front will move into northwest Maine
later this evening, and move off the coast late tonight. There
are isolated to scattered showers ahead of and along the front.
Made minor changes to the PoPs for this evening based on the
latest radar trends. Otherwise, loaded in the past few hours of
observed data and made just minor tweaks based on the expected
conditions this evening.

Previous discussion:
A cold front will push out of Quebec this evening tracking into
Maine from NW to SE through the evening. Expect isolated to
scattered rain showers across the area with not a lot of
accumulation generally less than 0.1 inch. Cold front is
expected to cross NW to SE between 9PM and 2AM. Winds will shift
NW tonight after FROPA and become gusty 20-30mph. Although cold
air advection the airmass isn`t that overly cold so expecting
lows to bottom out in the upper 30s to low 40s across the north,
mid 40s in the Central Highlands and low 40s along the Downeast
Coast. Skies will be mainly mostly cloudy but will see gradual
clearing after midnight after FROPA.

Tomorrow, surface high pressure will slide east over the Gulf
of Maine off the southern New England coast. Very dry airmass
with modeled 850-250mb RH plots 20-25% suggesting skies turning
mainly clear with fully sunshine except a few clouds across far
Northeast Aroostook. Tomorrow the pressure gradient will be
tight enough for N-NNW winds 10-15mph with gusts 25-30mph
especially in the Central Highlands to the Crown. Expect
temperatures to warm into the low to mid 60s across the Downeast
Coast inland to the Route 6 corridor thanks to a downslope wind
off the Longfellow Mtns. Baxter/Moosehead regions northward
expect low to mid 50s which is typical for these locations being
cooler in N-NNW wind days.

We will have to keep an eye on fire weather conditions tomorrow
given the dry fuels, gusty winds and we see a mixed atmosphere
up to 900mb. Minimum RHs in the afternoon will fall back into
the 30-35% range in the downslope locations of the Highlands and
Downeast coast. Interior Washington into the Crown and back into
the North Woods the Min RHs should bottom out in the 40-44%
range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will build into the area Monday night into
Tuesday, leading to mostly clear skies. Northerly flow will
continue, which will advect some cooler air into the region and
keep highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Clouds will begin to build in across the forecast area Tuesday
evening into Tuesday night ahead of a low pressure system that
will pass south of the area through the day on Wednesday. This
low will begin to weaken as it interacts with the ridge of high
pressure, and so not much in the way of measurable precip is
expected. With warmer than average temperatures this week,
precip will be all rain. Additionally, with the low track south
of the Gulf of Maine, rainfall will only reach up through
Interior Downeast on Wednesday, with the northern half of the
forecast area remaining mostly dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will return to the area on Thursday behind the
recent batch of rain showers Downeast. Another quick moving
shortwave will approach from the NW Thursday night into Friday.
This is will the uncertainty begins to increase, as the
interaction with the ridge of high pressure could lead to a
slowed progression of this shortwave, which instead of passing
through the area Thursday afternoon, may hold off until Thursday
night into Friday.

A fairly progressive pattern is expected into the weekend, as
another warm front lifts north towards the area behind the
Thursday-Friday shortwave, followed by an occluding front into
the weekend. This system will provide the next chance (30 - 40%)
of a wetting rain across the entire forecast area. Factors that
could impact this system include the high pressure during the
middle of the week which could slow the progression of this
system down or cause it to weaken as it approaches.

Temperatures are forecast to remain above average for this time
of the year through the long term, with highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: North Terms...MVFR cigs tonight. Scattered rain
showers end by 06z. LLWS possible for a few hours after FROPA
tonight. S winds 5-15kt this evening shifting N-NNW 10-15kt with
gusts up to 30kt possible. Tomorrow becoming VFR and then SKC.
N-NNW winds 10-15kt with gusts up to 30kt.

South Terms...VFR becoming high end MVFR for a few hours tonight
with approaching front then a few hours after FROPA. VCSH/-SHRA
through 03z. MVFR cigs will become VFR by early morning. Winds
S-SW 5-15kt this evening shifting N-NNW overnight 10-15kt with
gusts up to 20kt possible. LLWS possible for a few hours after
FROPA tonight. BR Possible to reduce vsby till FROPA at BHB
tonight. Tomorrow, VFR becoming SKC. N-NNW winds 10-15kt with
gusts up to 25kt.

SHORT TERM:
Monday night-Tuesday...VFR. N winds 5 to 15 kts, gusts to 20 kts
early.

Tuesday night ...Mainly VFR, trending towards MVFR at BGR/BHB
possible late. Winds light and variable.

Wednesday - Wednesday night...Mainly VFR, with MVFR early at
Downeast terminals in -SHRA. Winds light and variable.

Thursday - Thursday night...Mainly VFR, with cigs trending
towards MVFR from north to south Thursday evening through
Thursday night as -SHRA moves into the area. S winds 5 to 10 kts
shifting SE overnight.

Friday...Cigs decreasing towards MVFR as -SHRA moves in across
all terminals. E winds 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds below SCA conditions through Mon Eve. S winds
less than 15kt tonight shift N-NNW overnight 10-15kt. Gusts may
reach 20kt especially over the Coastal Waters out 25nm. Seas
generally 1-2ft through Mon evening. Wave period generally
4-5sec tonight becoming 5-6sec tomorrow. Sea surface
temperatures generally 40-43F from the Downeast coast out 25nm
and east to the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy Bay.

SHORT TERM: Aside from northerly wind gusts briefly approaching
20 kts early Tuesday morning, conditions are expected to remain
below SCA criteria through at least Thursday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/Sinko
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...CB/Sinko/AStrauser
Marine...CB/Sinko/AStrauser