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000
FXUS64 KCRP 232258
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
558 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

An upper level ridge is gradually building into the region early
this afternoon/evening, bringing in northwesterly winds aloft. These
upper level winds will turn southwesterly once the ridge fully moves
in early tomorrow afternoon. At the surface, a center of high
pressure sits over the Southeast CONUS allowing for the continuation
of southeasterly flow, therefore, increasing low level moisture over
South Texas. This influx of moisture is keeping conditions cloudy
this afternoon, which will continue through the overnight hours with
lows reaching the mid 60s to low 70s. In addition to the cloudy
conditions, there is a low chance (around 20%) of some patchy fog
development after midnight over the Coastal Plains and Victoria
Crossroads regions. By Wednesday afternoon, mostly sunny/partly
cloudy conditions return with highs expected in the low 80s in the
east to mid 90s out west across the Brush Country. Tomorrow night`s
lows will range similarly as tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Key Messages:

-Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts Saturday with heat
indices around 105 degrees out west and around 100 degrees elsewhere

The long term looks to remain relatively quiet as it begins with a
series of upper level short waves moving across the Great Plains.
These shortwaves that will move through the area Friday, Sunday, and
Monday. With above normal PWAT values ahead of these short waves
(1.7-1.9 inches) an isolated shower/thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
each of those days. The caveat is that there isn`t any surface
forcing available to enhance the environment. The best chance
looks to be Monday with PoP chances are around 20% or less in the
Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains. With the gradient along
the ridge tightening over our area, onshore flow will likely
increase to Small Craft Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory
conditions beginning Thurday evening through Sunday.

It will be hot through majority of the long term with high
temperatures in the lower 80s to the east and upper 90s to the west.
Feels like temperatures out west can potentially reach 105 degrees
with lower 90s to the east. Gross I know, but this will
unfortunately be the trend through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

There is a mixture of VFR and MVFR ceilings to begin this TAF
period. All terminals will have prevailing MVFR by 06Z with light
southeasterly winds. Sites over the Victoria Crossroads and
Coastal Plains may see brief periods of IFR conditions. By
afternoon, VFR conditions will return with light to moderate
onshore flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Weak to moderate southeasterly flow continues this evening through
tomorrow night. Weak to moderate southeast flow Thursday is
expected to strengthen to over 20 knots Thursday and continue
impacting our local waters through Sunday. Therefore, Small Craft
Advisory conditions will likely exist Thursday through Sunday.
Onshore flow is expected to weaken to weak to moderate Monday and
persist through the remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    72  86  72  86 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          68  85  70  85 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            72  93  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             69  88  71  90 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          72  83  73  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           71  92  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        70  86  71  88 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       73  83  73  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS
LONG TERM....NP
AVIATION...LS/77