Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 241110
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
710 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil, dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures will
occur today and last through Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure
at the surface and aloft moves east across the state today and
remains over the Eastern Seaboard early in the upcoming week.

A weak cold front will bring clouds and a few periods of showers
for the Tuesday night through early Thursday period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure ridging into the Commonwealth with deep, dry air
and slowly warming temps aloft has resulted in dissipating
strato cu across the Northern and Western Mtns overnight while
sky cover elsewhere will remain clear.

Rather strong radiational cooling across the region overnight
helped lower MinTs to 5-10F below climo for the end of March.

These seasonably cool temperatures, along with continuing breezy
conditions early today (with gusts from the NNW into the teens),
will allow for Apparent Ts to be in the +0-10F range to start
the day today.

Today will feature abundant sunshine and gradually diminishing
wind, that will veer around to the Northeast, then becoming
light Easterly by this evening.

Max temps today will vary from the mid and upper 30s over the
Northern Mtns to upper 40s in the Southern Valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Will continue to undercut NBM dewpoints this afternoon
considering favorable sounding profiles that will support
MinRHs this afternoon in the 20-30% range across the south-
central PA.

Clear skies and light wind for tonight as the ridge of high
pressure drifts just east of the CWA. Lows tonight will be a few
to several deg F colder in most places with daybreak Monday
readings in the mid to upper teens across the north and 20s
elsewhere.

Mid and high clouds (based AOA 15 KFT AGL) are expected to
increase somewhat Monday afternoon evening into the Tuesday
morning ahead of the next batch of rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Guidance begins to indicate precipitation making way into
western PA late Tuesday morning, associated with a weakening
cold front. The best forcing continues to track north of PA,
with rain showers later in the day and at night expected to be
generally light, despite a moistening easterly/southeasterly
LLVL flow.

There remains some model spread/forecast uncertainty later in
the week regarding how far the weakening front progresses.
Recent EPS guidance has tracked more precipitation into eastern
PA and have increased PoPs in the Thursday while the GEFS keeps
the developing surface low on the front will track further to
the east. There is still a bit of uncertainty with regards to
frontal placement and the development of the low, so have mainly
capped at SChc/Chc for this timeframe. The bulk of precipitation
is expected to exit by Friday morning, with scattered showers
returning for the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure passing just to our north today will provide
Central PA with widespread VFR conditions under sunny skies.

A northerly sfc breeze this morning will gradually veer and
become more northeasterly to easterly later today into tonight.

Outlook...

Mon...No sig wx expected.

Tue...Low clouds developing late.

Tue night-Wed...Rain/low cigs expected.

Wed night-Thu...Improving conds.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/NPB
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/NPB
LONG TERM...Lambert/NPB/Bowen
AVIATION...Evanego


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