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000
FXUS61 KCTP 241358
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
958 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be cooler with scattered rain showers and a rumble of
thunder in spots as an upper level disturbance crosses the
region. Widespread frost and freeze conditions are expected
tonight and Friday morning, with high pressure providing dry
and mostly sunny conditions. Clouds increase late Friday leading
to a chance of showers Friday night and into the weekend before
it turns much warmer for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
500mb trough axis swinging through central PA at mid morning
maintaining scattered open cellular showers from the Fingerlakes
through the Central Mountains and parts of the SC Mountains, all
tracking eastward at a good clip. Thermodynamic profiles
favorable for a few low topped thunderstorms over my
southeastern counties late this morning and afternoon thanks to
steep lapse rates afforded by cooling aloft and sfc warming.
Localized gusts of 30-40 mph would be possible from these, and
our southeast counties remain in the general t-storm outlook
from SPC.

Highs today will trend ~5-10 degrees cooler vs. Tuesday and
ranging from the upper 40s in the NW mtns to mid 60s in the
lower Susquehanna Valley. Expect rain showers to dissipate by
tonight.

1030+mb Canadian high pressure with origins over northern
Manitoba will drift southward to a position north of Lake
Ontario overnight. Large scale downward motion and a rather
chilly and dry northerly flow should clear skies from north to
south into early Thursday morning. A freeze watch remains in
effect for active growing season zones where fcst min temps are
fcst in the 25-30F range. Dayshift can assess cloud trends and
upgrade to a warning. Frost is possible but may not be as
widespread particularly in the southern tier given persistent
north wind and lingering low cloud cover centered over the
Laurel Highlands. Frost/freeze risk outside of the watch area is
highlighted in the HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Chilly/cold start Thursday followed by mostly sunny conditions
allowing temps to warm into the mid 50s to around 60F. Very dry
air/below normal pwats ~0.20 inches combined with HREF ens min
and mixed Td sounding signal suggests a floor for minRH as low
as 10-15% across the northern tier. The abnormally dry air and
favorable radiational cooling conditions will support renewed
frost/freeze concerns tomorrow night into AM Friday. This risk
is highlighted in the HWO.

The sfc high strengthens to +2SD or ~1035mb as it drifts over
interior New England to Long Island by 12Z Saturday. Rain free
wx conditions will continue through the end of the week/Friday
with sun mixing with high clouds and max temps trending warmer
into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Showers along a warm front are likely to reach western PA by
daybreak Saturday based on latest operational model/ens
consensus. No frost/freeze concerns for Friday night into AM
Saturday with increasing clouds and fcst lows 38-45F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The weekend appears somewhat unsettled, with a warm front
arriving Saturday and warm sector struggling to overspread
central PA. It won`t be raining all the time, but a couple of
showers are likely on Saturday with a t-storm possible on
Sunday.

Upper ridging should eventually win out by early next week,
allowing for drier wx and much warmer temps with highs surging
through the 70s and perhaps topping 80F across the south on
Monday. A bit humid as well with fcst Td around 60F.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered rain showers will continue throughout the morning and
early afternoon before diminishing by the early evening hours.
Winds out of the NW will see occasional gusts of 15-25 kts in
some locations.

The western highlands have dropped to MVFR/IFR conditions and
will stay down for today. Low probability (<20%) of LIFR exists
for BFD in the afternoon, bit cigs are more likely to remain
MVFR/IFR. The central mtns will likely drop to borderline
MVFR/VFR, with the Lower Susq Valley remaining VFR.

Conditions will eventually improve late tonight as cigs raise
back to VFR as clouds clear and high pressure builds into the
region for Thursday and Friday.

Outlook...

Wed...Spotty -SHRA with MVFR cigs west and predominantly VFR
east.

Thu-Fri...Predominantly VFR conds under high pressure.

Fri night-Sat...Patchy rain developing from west to east.

Sun...Scattered SHRA/TSRA possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
PAZ004-005-010-011-017>019-025>027-045-046-049>053.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Evanego
AVIATION...Evanego/Bowen