057
FXUS63 KDLH 042348
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
648 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower activity this afternoon with some embedded
  thunderstorms in the Minnesota Arrowhead before showers taper
  off this evening.

- Mostly clear skies and a colder air mass overhead tonight are
  expected to aid in fog and frost formation tonight.

- Breezy southerly winds occur with minimum relative humidity in
  the low to mid-30% range on Monday.

- An active pattern continues with plenty of chances for rain
  showers and thunderstorms through the week. The next round of
  rainfall begins Monday night into Tuesday, with non-severe
  thunderstorms in northwest Wisconsin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

As a cold front departs, there will be a brief window this
afternoon where shower activity will prevail. There is just
enough MUCAPE (<500 J/kg) to spark a few thunderstorms across
NE MN. Shower activity should commence with sunset leaving
fairly clear skies as high pressure builds overnight.

Expect fog to develop though a little unsure on the density, so
for now have a broad brush patchy fog wording in the forecast.
May need dense fog advisories depending on how this plays out.
There is a little potential for the fog to frost out as
temperatures approach the mid to lower 30s.

A little break from the rain on Sunday before the next system
begins to push in on Monday bringing stronger winds and dry
conditions before rain arrives in the overnight hours between
Monday and Tuesday. The parent low to this is attendant to a
closed upper level low spinning over western ND. This spawns the
cold front over the Northland giving the potential for
thunderstorms and some stronger downpours with a narrow strip of
PWATs exceeding 1.25" as it crosses. Shear profiles aren`t
conducive to severe weather, so not expecting any storms to be
strong, but do expect them to be around.

That same upper level that spawned the Mon-Tue storm will slowly
move east and wrap vort maxes around it giving a chance for
shower activity through much of the remainder of the work week.
While the secondary low it spawns looks like it will miss us to
the south or just brush NW WI, late in the week, still think
there is enough variance in the guidance for that forecast to
change, so keep an eye out for forecast updates in this period
as a little wobble north could increase our chances for heavier
rain.

With compact lows that are moving through the region, could see
some elevated winds throughout the week. Given the nature of
compact lows, that also means wind directions will be variable
and can change quickly.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR conditions will be the primary for the TAF period. Due to
lingering moisture across the area, fog is possible in the later
hours of the night. Some models show fog forming as early as
06Z, but only put in visibility restrictions where confidence
was higher that fog would form. However, chances for fog
continue to decrease in high-res models and may be taken out in
the 06Z set.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Areas of marine fog are possible through Sunday morning. Light
winds under high pressure prevail through Sunday morning before
becoming west-southwest at 10-15 knots. No concerns until Monday
when northeast winds and waves increase.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...Wolfe